Nvidia stock exhibits bearish momentum with key support at $105
Nvidia, a high-beta tech stock, is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations.
As of March 31, 2025, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is trading at $109.67, marking a 1.62% decline from the previous close.
The recent price action shows that Nvidia has broken below its 50-day moving average of $117.80 and remains under its 200-day moving average of $125.15, reinforcing a bearish sentiment in the short term. Notably, the 50-day MA has crossed beneath the 200-day MA in a pattern known as a “death cross,” which typically signals continued downside pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 43, suggesting that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold but tilting towards weaker momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also showing a bearish crossover, indicating further downside risks.
NVDA stock price dynamics (January 2025 - March 2025). Source: TradingView.
Key support levels to watch are at $105, which has held as a short-term floor during recent declines, and $96, a major support zone last tested in early 2024. Resistance levels are defined at $130, which served as a ceiling during the February rally, and $150, a more substantial barrier that previously acted as a multi-month top. Overall, technical indicators suggest the stock is under pressure, with limited upside unless there is a clear reversal above $130.
Recent developments
The broader market environment has played a significant role in Nvidia’s recent price movement. U.S. equity markets have experienced heightened volatility in March due to shifting investor sentiment, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical developments. Nvidia, being a high-beta tech stock, is particularly sensitive to these macroeconomic fluctuations.
A recent report by Yahoo Finance highlighted Nvidia as one of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks in recent years, thanks to its dominance in artificial intelligence (AI) and data center markets. However, the same report notes that Nvidia's valuation has become a point of concern for some analysts, as price-to-earnings multiples remain elevated compared to industry peers.
Further pressure has come from international developments, particularly China’s energy regulations that may restrict Nvidia’s ability to export its H20 AI chip. According to a recent Business Insider article, these regulations could slow Nvidia’s momentum in one of its fastest-growing markets. This news has contributed to a near 5% sell-off in the stock last week, compounding existing market pressures.
Market scenarios
Given current technical and macro conditions, Nvidia appears poised to test the $105 support level in the coming days. If this level is breached decisively, the next downside target is $96, which may act as a medium-term base.
On the upside, any rebound must clear the $117–$120 range and then overcome strong resistance at $130 for a bullish scenario to develop. A rally toward $150 would require a significant shift in sentiment, likely driven by earnings outperformance or easing regulatory risks.
Last week, Nvidia (NVDA) fell to $111.43 as the stock extended its correction phase following a strong multi-year rally. A bearish technical setup has emerged, with NVDA now trading below key moving averages and forming a "death cross," indicating potential for further downside.
