S&P 500 futures drop ahead of tariff deadline as technical setup turns bearish
S&P 500 retreats near 5,580 as bearish technical signals align with trade policy concerns
U.S. stock index futures edged lower Monday as investors braced for a turbulent week, highlighted by President Donald Trump's looming 25% auto tariff and reciprocal duties set for April 3—dubbed “Liberation Day” by some analysts. Over the weekend, Trump doubled down on his trade stance, stating he “couldn’t care less” if foreign automakers raised prices in response.
As equities digested this escalating rhetoric, attention also turned to Friday’s U.S. jobs report and a slate of corporate earnings, including those from PVH and Constellation Brands.
Last week, markets reflected growing investor anxiety. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.96%, the S&P 500 fell 1.53%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.59%. Analysts note that the renewed trade tensions could trigger retaliatory action from major U.S. trade partners, placing additional pressure on an already slowing economy.
S&P 500 price movement (November 2024 - March 2025) Source: TradingView.
Technical outlook paints a bearish picture
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has formed a clear short-term downtrend on the 4-hour chart, establishing lower highs and lows. The index recently lost its ascending trendline support and is now consolidating near the 5,580 level, a crucial demand zone. Key moving averages are aligned bearishly, with the 20- and 50-EMAs above current prices, acting as dynamic resistance at 5,677 and 5,743, respectively. Unless the index reclaims the 5,740–5,780 region, upward momentum remains capped.
MACD signals further caution, with a recent bearish crossover and deepening red histogram bars, while the RSI on the daily chart stands at 37.87, pointing to mounting bearish momentum without signaling an oversold bounce yet.
Support levels under watch
Fibonacci retracement levels from the 5,504–6,147 rally show the index has broken the 0.382 and 0.5 levels and now hovers near the 0.618 retracement at 5,901. Failure to hold 5,540 could trigger further downside toward the 5,465–5,504 zone. Meanwhile, prior support at 5,720–5,740 has flipped to resistance, strengthening the bearish case.
In our prior technical breakdown, we highlighted the risk of reversal after repeated rejections near 5,840. As expected, the S&P 500 has weakened after failing to hold trendline support, and unless volume-driven recovery reclaims 5,740–5,780, the bias will remain tilted to the downside.
