Tesla stock faces pressure after missing Q1 2025 delivery estimates
Tesla is contending with fierce competition
As of April 1, 2025, Tesla’s stock (TSLA) is trading near $263, marking a significant 36% decline year-to-date.
The sell-off reflects mounting investor concerns over underwhelming delivery figures and increasing competitive pressure in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. Technically, the stock remains in a bearish formation, with momentum indicators and moving averages painting a cautious picture.
Tesla has established a key support level at $250. This level has been tested multiple times in recent sessions, indicating a critical threshold for buyer interest. A breakdown below this point could open the door to further downside pressure, with the next significant support level near $230. On the upside, the first major resistance comes in around $280, aligning with the 50-day simple moving average.
TSLA stock price dynamics (January 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40, indicating that the stock is approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling a definitive reversal. Volume levels have also increased during the recent decline, further validating the downward pressure on TSLA shares.
Delivery concerns and competitive landscape
Tesla’s recent delivery data has rattled markets. The company missed Q1 2025 delivery estimates by roughly 90,000 vehicles, a shortfall that significantly diverged from Wall Street expectations. Analysts had forecast deliveries of over 480,000 units, while the company reported just under 390,000. This miss reflects broader issues, including soft demand in North America and Europe, which have been influenced in part by consumer hesitation amid CEO Elon Musk’s political activism and the delayed release of the refreshed Model Y.
In China, Tesla is contending with fierce competition. Domestic EV makers like XPeng and Li Auto continue to gain market share. XPeng, for example, reported 33,205 deliveries in March, a significant jump from just over 9,000 a year prior. This rapid expansion underscores how quickly Tesla’s lead in the Chinese EV market is being eroded by aggressive pricing and innovation from local brands.
Further complicating the picture are regulatory dynamics. Tesla has traditionally benefited from the sale of carbon emission credits, and it continues to receive interest in this area from legacy automakers such as Stellantis. However, potential policy changes under the Biden administration, particularly regarding EV incentives and environmental credit programs, could introduce new risks to this revenue stream going forward.
Price scenarios
Looking ahead, Tesla’s stock appears vulnerable to further downside unless it can quickly stabilize and produce a catalyst for a rebound. In the near term, the $250 support level is critical. A breakdown below this mark could trigger a slide toward the $230 zone. This would likely correspond with increasing selling pressure from both retail and institutional investors responding to the weak delivery figures and competitive headwinds.
However, should TSLA maintain support above $250 and attract dip-buyers, a short-term bounce toward the $280 resistance is plausible. Breaking and holding above $280 would signal growing confidence, potentially leading to a retest of the $300 area, which aligns with the 200-day moving average.
Tesla's European sales dropped 44% year-over-year in February, with market share falling to a five-year low of 9.6% as BEV registrations slipped below 16,000 units. In contrast, rivals like Volkswagen, BMW, and Chinese EV brands posted strong gains, overtaking Tesla in key regional markets.
