WTI crude oil price trades below $71 as markets brace for U.S. tariff rollout and OPEC+ policy review
WTI trades near $71 as markets weigh geopolitical risk and Trump’s tariff announcement
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures traded near $70.98 per barrel on Wednesday, with prices showing limited upside as traders prepared for the imminent release of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff package. While geopolitical risks continue to provide a floor for prices, lingering uncertainty over the scope of the tariffs and their impact on global trade has capped further gains.
The White House confirmed that the new tariffs will take effect immediately after being unveiled later today, though specific details remain undisclosed. Trump’s suggestion that the measures will affect many countries has added to investor concerns about a wider economic fallout that could weaken oil demand. This sentiment kept oil bulls cautious despite recent supply-related developments.
USOIL price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025) Source: TradingView.
Geopolitical risks support oil amid inventory build
Geopolitical tensions have lent underlying support to oil prices. President Trump recently threatened secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil and signaled a hardline approach toward Iran, including the possibility of bombing if Tehran does not comply with U.S. demands on its nuclear program. These remarks have raised fears of potential supply disruptions, particularly from major exporters like Russia and Iran.
However, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.037 million barrels for the week ending March 28, following a 4.6 million-barrel draw the previous week. Year-to-date, U.S. inventories have surged by nearly 23 million barrels, dampening near-term bullish momentum.
OPEC+ meeting eyed amid output growth plans
Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring Saturday’s ministerial committee meeting of the OPEC+ alliance. According to sources cited by Reuters, the group is expected to approve a modest output hike of 135,000 barrels per day for May, following a similar decision for April. With crude currently stuck below the $71.00 threshold, the outcome of the meeting could help determine whether supply-side expectations can offset the broader macroeconomic risks tied to trade tensions.
In prior updates, we noted that WTI’s gains were primarily supported by geopolitical volatility and a weaker USD. That trend persists, but traders now face a pivotal test as Trump’s tariff rollout and OPEC+ decisions converge, both capable of setting the next directional tone.
