USD/CAD price holds above $1.43 as traders await Trump tariff announcement

The USD/CAD pair is trading marginally lower near 1.4297 on Wednesday, showing signs of consolidation after retreating from its recent high of 1.4415. The movement comes ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs later in the day, with market participants hesitant to take decisive positions until greater clarity emerges on trade policy.
Investors remain cautious as reports suggest Trump may impose global tariffs of up to 20% on all major trading partners, raising concerns over the economic implications for trade-dependent economies like Canada. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reaffirmed his intent to counteract any “unjustified trade actions,” following discussions with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. These developments underscore the rising geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on the Canadian dollar.
USD/CAD price movement (February 2025 - April 2025) Source: TradingView.
Technical and macro forces influence price action
From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD has found support near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which lies just below the key 1.43 psychological level. While a brief dip below that level occurred during the Asian session, the pair quickly rebounded, highlighting the significance of this support zone. Neutral oscillators on the daily chart suggest a wait-and-watch approach is warranted until a confirmed breakout or breakdown materializes.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies near 1.435. A breach of this level could prompt short-covering and lift the pair toward 1.44, with a potential extension to 1.4440 and possibly 1.4480. On the downside, a decisive drop below 1.43 may expose the pair to deeper losses, targeting 1.4235 and possibly 1.415—the year’s low marked on February 14.
Traders remain data- and headline-sensitive
The outlook for USD/CAD will likely remain sensitive to Trump’s tariff announcement and any retaliatory measures from Canada or other trade partners. Market sentiment is also being shaped by expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which continue to cap bullish momentum in the U.S. Dollar, while rising oil prices offer support to the Loonie.
In earlier coverage, we highlighted the fragile upside in USD/CAD driven by Fed rate cut bets and trade policy uncertainty. This continues to play out as buyers show caution near 1.4415 and price holds around 1.43 with macro forces guiding short-term sentiment.