Nvidia stock shows short-term weakness amid renewed U.S. tariff threats
Macroeconomic and political developments have weighed heavily on the stock.
As of April 2, 2025, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is trading at $110.15, marking a daily increase of 1.67%.
Despite this minor uptick, the stock has dropped approximately 18% since the beginning of the year and currently trades nearly 27% below its record high of $153.13, reached in early January. This decline reflects mounting investor caution amid growing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
From a technical perspective, Nvidia's chart presents several critical levels to monitor. Immediate support lies around $105, which has been tested repeatedly in recent sessions and currently acts as a short-term floor. A more substantial and psychologically significant support is situated at the $100 mark. A breakdown below this level could open the door to further declines, with next support potentially forming near $95.
NVDA stock price dynamics (January 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
On the upside, the stock faces resistance near $115, aligning with the 50-day moving average. A successful close above this level would be an encouraging signal for bullish traders. Further resistance is expected around $120, which coincides with the longer-term 200-day moving average. Until Nvidia can reclaim these levels, upward momentum remains limited.
Tariff concerns clash with AI optimism
Nvidia’s recent underperformance cannot be solely attributed to technicals. Macroeconomic and political developments have weighed heavily on the stock, particularly the renewed threat of tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade rhetoric. According to a recent Barron’s report, while semiconductors were not included in the latest round of proposed tariffs, there is mounting concern that future actions could directly target chipmakers like Nvidia.
Investors are especially sensitive to the possibility of tariffs on Chinese-made semiconductors and hardware components, which would raise Nvidia's production costs and complicate its supply chain. Any formal implementation of these tariffs could hurt margins and limit the company’s ability to price competitively in global markets.
At the same time, demand for Nvidia’s AI hardware remains exceptionally strong. Industry leaders such as OpenAI have reported explosive growth in the need for advanced computing infrastructure, most of which relies on Nvidia's cutting-edge GPUs. This sustained demand is a crucial tailwind and may provide a buffer against external shocks. Still, in the current climate, strong fundamentals alone are not enough to insulate the stock from headline-driven volatility.
Price scenarios
Over the short term, Nvidia is expected to trade in a relatively narrow range, bracketed by support at $105 and resistance at $115. If the stock can maintain levels above $105, a rebound toward $115 is likely, especially if there is a resolution or easing of trade tensions. A breakout above $115 could open a path to $120, which would likely be met with selling pressure unless underpinned by strong earnings or policy clarity.
On the downside, a break below $105 would suggest further weakness, with the next critical support at $100. A close below this level would be technically bearish and could see the stock test $95. Given current conditions, Nvidia’s share price is expected to remain under pressure in the coming weeks, with a projected range of $100–$115 unless macroeconomic risks subside.
Last week, Nvidia’s stock extended its correction, slipping below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The formation of a "death cross" further reinforced bearish momentum, suggesting the downtrend may persist in the near term.
