Nvidia stock holds firm on AI strength as tariff tensions stir short-term headwinds
The company remains structurally well-positioned despite short-term external shocks.
As of April 3, 2025, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) is trading at $110.42, representing a marginal increase of 0.19% from the previous session.
The stock has been under pressure in recent weeks, reflecting a broader pullback in semiconductor names amid geopolitical uncertainties. On the technical front, Nvidia's chart reflects a bearish tilt, with the price currently sitting below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Support is currently found around the $105 level, which has held firm during previous corrections and is a psychologically important zone for short-term traders. If that support fails, the next downside target is likely to be around the $100 mark. On the upside, immediate resistance lies near $115, which coincides with the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A breakout above that resistance could lead to a short-term rally toward the 50-day average near $118.50.
NVDA stock price dynamics (January 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at approximately 45, indicating that the stock is approaching oversold territory but has yet to reach extremes. This suggests that while bearish momentum is dominant, there may be scope for a technical rebound if sentiment improves or buyers return near support.
Market conditions
A significant overhang on Nvidia’s stock has emerged from fresh U.S. tariffs aimed at strategic sectors, including semiconductors. Although Nvidia's AI chips produced in Taiwan are not immediately impacted by the newly proposed 32% tariffs, the broader implications of a potential escalation in the U.S.-China trade dispute are weighing on investor sentiment. Nvidia relies heavily on the global semiconductor supply chain, and any disruptions or retaliatory measures from China could complicate logistics, pricing power, or regulatory compliance.
Despite these macro headwinds, Nvidia continues to deliver strong fundamentals. The company recently showcased its latest Blackwell AI computing platform, which has outperformed in inference benchmarks. Inference workloads now account for approximately 40% of Nvidia’s data-center revenue, highlighting a shift in enterprise demand from training to production-scale deployment of AI models. This signals a maturing AI ecosystem and positions Nvidia as a core infrastructure provider for generative AI and advanced computing applications.
In addition, Nvidia’s growing software ecosystem and increasing integration into cloud and edge environments suggest that the company remains structurally well-positioned despite short-term external shocks. Management has reiterated its focus on innovation and platform development to stay ahead in the increasingly competitive AI landscape.
Price scenarios
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s stock may continue to trade within a volatile range as investors digest the implications of trade policy shifts and gauge the durability of AI-driven demand. If NVDA breaks below $105, a test of the $100 level is probable. This would represent a roughly 9% correction from current levels and might trigger technical selling. However, if the stock can hold above support and reclaim $115, momentum could build for a move back toward the $120–$122 zone, aligned with the 50-day average and late February trading range.
In the near term, sentiment will be influenced by macro headlines, particularly related to tariffs and trade tensions. A de-escalation in rhetoric or a clarification on exemptions for AI hardware could trigger relief rallies. Conversely, an escalation would likely renew selling pressure.
Earlier this week, we reported that Nvidia shares saw a slight uptick, but the stock remains down about 18% year-to-date. It now trades nearly 27% below its January peak of $153.13, reflecting rising investor caution amid macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.
