Apple stock tumbles on tariff shock as technicals flash oversold signals
Analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of relocating iPhone production to the U.S.
As of April 9, 2025, Apple Inc. (AAPL) is trading at $172.42, reflecting a 4.78% decline from the previous close.
This recent downturn has brought the stock closer to key support levels. Immediate support is identified at $170, with a more substantial support level at $165. On the upside, resistance is observed at $180, followed by a stronger barrier at $185.The 50-day moving average (50-MA) is currently positioned below the 200-day moving average (200-MA), a configuration often interpreted as a bearish signal. The downward slope of the 50-MA indicates sustained selling pressure in the short term. However, the 200-MA remains relatively flat, suggesting that the longer-term trend has not yet shifted decisively bearish.
AAPL stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Volatility has also increased notably, with the Average True Range (ATR) rising to 3.15, up from the 20-day average of 2.21, highlighting a surge in price fluctuation and elevated market uncertainty. Trading volume spiked to 88.3 million shares on April 8, compared to the 30-day average volume of 57.6 million, confirming that the recent drop was accompanied by strong participation—often a sign of institutional repositioning. Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped to 31.2, just above the critical 30 threshold that signals oversold conditions.
Tariffs and supply chain challenges
The recent decline in Apple's stock price is largely attributed to the Trump administration's confirmation of 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, a move that has significant implications for companies with extensive supply chains in China, such as Apple. These tariffs are expected to increase production costs, which could either compress profit margins or lead to higher prices for consumers. The announcement has intensified concerns about the resilience of Apple's supply chain and its ability to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.
Analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of relocating iPhone production to the United States. Such a move would involve substantial capital investment and time, making it an impractical short-term solution. In response to anticipated price increases, there have been reports of consumers accelerating their iPhone purchases, potentially leading to a short-term boost in sales but raising concerns about future demand.
In addition to tariff-related challenges, Apple is navigating a competitive landscape with increasing pressure from other smartphone manufacturers and evolving consumer preferences. The company's ability to innovate and introduce compelling new products will be crucial in maintaining its market position. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors, such as fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and changes in consumer spending patterns, could also influence Apple's financial performance.
Price scenarios
Considering the current technical indicators and market context, AAPL is likely to test the support level at $170 in the near term. If this support holds, the stock may enter a consolidation phase, trading between $170 and $175 as investors assess the impact of the tariffs and await further developments. However, a decisive break below $170 could trigger additional selling pressure, potentially pushing the stock down to the next support level at $165.
Conversely, if Apple announces effective strategies to mitigate the impact of the tariffs, such as supply chain diversification or cost absorption measures, investor sentiment could improve. In this scenario, AAPL could rebound toward the resistance level at $180. A break above this resistance would signal renewed bullish momentum, with the potential to challenge the $185 level.
Apple's stock decline is being driven by delayed AI feature rollouts and weakening consumer upgrade cycles, with Siri enhancements now postponed until 2026. A UBS survey shows iPhone users are holding onto their devices for an average of 35 months, threatening Apple's hardware-driven revenue strategy.
