Tesla stock holds at $252 as tariff risk, weak deliveries cloud outlook
Elon Musk’s increasingly polarizing political presence has become a growing concern among institutional investors.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is currently trading at approximately $252.35, marking a steep year-to-date decline of around 38%.
The stock has struggled to maintain momentum, with recent price action forming a descending triangle pattern — often considered a bearish continuation signal. Tesla’s market capitalization sits near $811.56 billion, and its trailing twelve-month earnings per share (EPS) is $2.04, resulting in a stretched price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 123.80. This suggests the stock remains expensive by traditional valuation metrics, especially given the company’s recent growth setbacks.
Support is seen near $240, a level tested multiple times in 2024, while resistance is capped around $280. Tesla trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($266 and $274, respectively), further confirming bearish pressure. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are hovering around 42, indicating that the stock is nearing oversold territory but lacks momentum for a significant rebound without a strong fundamental catalyst.
TSLA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Volume trends also reflect growing investor caution. Tesla's average daily trading volume over the past month has dropped to approximately 95 million shares, down from a three-month average of 121 million, indicating reduced participation from both institutional and retail investors. On the options front, the put-to-call open interest ratio has climbed to 1.32, the highest level since mid-2023, showing a clear skew toward bearish positioning. Implied volatility stands at 62%, notably higher than the S&P 500 average of 21%, suggesting elevated uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s short-term prospects. These indicators reinforce the bearish technical setup and suggest continued pressure unless sentiment improves meaningfully.
Macroeconomic context and company-specific news
Tesla’s underperformance has been compounded by disappointing Q1 2025 delivery figures. The company delivered approximately 337,000 vehicles, down 13% year-over-year and roughly 40,000 units below consensus estimates. This marks the first time since 2020 that deliveries have fallen below expectations so sharply. Analysts attribute the miss to several factors: production bottlenecks amid platform changes, shifting consumer sentiment, and competition from lower-cost EV models globally.
Adding to the pressure are newly imposed U.S. tariffs on imported auto parts, which pose a fresh challenge. While Tesla assembles most of its vehicles in the U.S., its reliance on imported components—particularly from China and Southeast Asia—means cost increases are inevitable. Analysts estimate that new tariffs could raise Tesla’s per-vehicle production costs by up to $4,000. While some electronics components have secured temporary exemptions, the broader tariff regime introduces uncertainty into Tesla’s supply chain, especially with upcoming models in development.
Moreover, Elon Musk’s increasingly polarizing political presence has become a growing concern among institutional investors and retail buyers alike. Some analysts believe Musk’s outspoken political commentary may be alienating environmentally conscious consumers, traditionally a strong base for Tesla.
Market scenarios
In the short term, Tesla stock is likely to remain under pressure due to the combination of delivery weakness, rising production costs, and macroeconomic headwinds. Unless the company surprises investors with stronger-than-expected Q2 guidance or an early launch of the new vehicle platform, downside risks persist.
If support at $240 breaks, the stock could slide further toward $220. However, should positive sentiment return on the back of upcoming product announcements or improved delivery trends, a recovery toward the $270–$280 range is plausible. For now, the technicals favor consolidation or further downside, with any rally likely to be short-lived unless supported by tangible improvements in Tesla’s fundamentals.
Tesla’s stock performance has weakened amid sharply lower deliveries across key markets, including an 11% drop in China and over 45% declines in Germany and France. In the U.S., its market share continues to shrink as legacy automakers gain ground with competitive EV and hybrid offerings.
