WTI crude price drops to $60 as IEA slashes demand forecast and trade fears deepen
WTI crude falls near $60 after IEA cuts demand outlook and U.S. inventories unexpectedly rise
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell toward $60 per barrel on Wednesday, marking its third straight session of losses and pushing prices to their lowest level in nearly four years. Brent crude also declined, trading near $63.66. The downturn reflects deepening worries about weakening global demand, persistent oversupply, and growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply downgraded its 2025 global oil demand forecast, projecting the slowest growth rate in five years. The agency expects market oversupply to continue through at least 2026, with U.S. production growth expected to slow under pressure from tariffs and strained trade relations. WTI has fallen over 13% this month as a result, with banks such as UBS, HSBC, and BNP Paribas lowering their price forecasts.
USOIL price dynamics (March 2025 - April 2025) Source: TradingView.
Trade disputes and OPEC+ output growth weigh on outlook
Oil markets remain under pressure from the protracted U.S.-China trade conflict. President Trump’s tariff-driven policies have led to cautious sentiment globally, as traders weigh the fallout on economic growth and energy consumption. Meanwhile, the President’s investigation into critical mineral tariffs may strain ties with China further, compounding concerns about recession risks.
On the supply side, OPEC+ continues to raise production, while progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks could lead to a return of more Iranian barrels to the market. Although OPEC’s own forecast remains more optimistic than the IEA’s—expecting a 1.3 million bpd increase in demand for both 2025 and 2026—its March production already exceeded targets, particularly due to overproduction in Kazakhstan.
Adding to bearish sentiment, the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise 2.4 million barrel build in U.S. crude inventories last week, compared to expectations for a draw of 1.68 million barrels. This marked the second inventory increase in four weeks, further amplifying oversupply concerns.
Earlier coverage highlighted crude’s vulnerability to macro volatility from tariff actions and shifting geopolitical dynamics. The current downturn confirms that without a shift in policy direction or a supply cut, oil may remain under sustained pressure.
