Nike stock slumps to 7-year low as tariffs erode margins
Net income fell to $1.16 billion, representing a 26% drop from the same period in 2024.
Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) has faced considerable selling pressure in 2025, with its stock declining nearly 27% year-to-date.
As of April 17, 2025, the stock trades at $55.58, marking a multi-year low not seen since December 2017. Technically, the downtrend is firmly intact. The 50-day moving average is currently positioned around $65.70, well above the current price level, and the 200-day moving average sits even higher at approximately $78.20. This wide divergence between price and long-term moving averages underlines the bearish sentiment surrounding the stock.
Momentum indicators confirm the weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below 35, suggesting the stock is approaching oversold territory, but not yet triggering a rebound. The MACD is negative and widening, which further supports the ongoing downward momentum.
NKE stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Support is currently found at the $52.90 level, which coincides with a previous demand zone from late 2017. If that level breaks, the next major support could be around $48. On the upside, resistance lies at $60, followed by a more significant ceiling near $65, where the 50-day moving average could act as a psychological barrier to further gains.
Macro headwinds and institutional sentiment
The sharp decline in Nike’s share price is driven largely by macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Chief among them is the recent imposition of new U.S. tariffs on imports from Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, and China—all of which are critical countries in Nike’s supply chain. The new tariffs, ranging from 32% to 49%, have led to concerns over elevated input costs and their long-term effect on margins. As Nike sources more than 70% of its footwear and apparel from these countries, the company will likely face increased pricing pressure or lower profitability unless it adjusts its supply chain or passes on the costs to consumers.
In terms of financial performance, Nike reported revenue of $12.4 billion for Q2 of fiscal year 2025, down 7.7% year-over-year. Net income fell to $1.16 billion, representing a 26% drop from the same period in 2024. Despite the revenue and profit decline, earnings per share came in at $0.78, beating analyst expectations by 23%. However, the beat was largely driven by cost-cutting and share buybacks rather than operational growth.
Investor sentiment, however, remains mixed. Notably, Evergreen Capital Management LLC recently boosted its position in Nike, signaling a long-term bullish stance despite short-term turbulence. Institutional inflows at these depressed levels could suggest that fund managers are betting on a recovery, likely driven by brand strength, a potential resolution of trade tensions, or improving global demand in the medium term.
Outlook and price forecast
The short-term outlook for Nike remains cautious. With no near-term resolution to the tariff situation and continuing margin pressure, the company may struggle to meet revenue targets over the next two quarters. The bearish technical setup also discourages aggressive buying at current levels.
Over the next 1–2 months, Nike stock is likely to remain range-bound between $52 and $60. A break below $52 could open the door to a decline toward $48, while a close above $60 might invite a short-term rebound toward $65, though strong resistance is expected there. Traders should watch for news related to trade policy, earnings revisions, or supply chain adjustments as potential catalysts.
Earlier this month, shares of Nike Inc. rose up to 3% after signs emerged that Vietnam and the U.S. could be close to a compromise on proposed tariffs threatening Nike’s supply chain. Vietnam requested a three-month delay to negotiate a new trade deal, reaffirming its commitment to strong economic ties with the U.S.
