Tesla stock trades near $241 ahead of earnings report
Tesla is grappling with several macro and micro headwinds.
As of April 21, Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) is trading at $240.89, reflecting weakness ahead of its Q1 earnings release and extending its recent underperformance.
The technical picture for Tesla has turned increasingly bearish in recent sessions, following the formation of a classic “death cross” pattern. This occurs when the 50-day moving average ($288.76) crosses below the 200-day moving average ($290.60), often interpreted as a signal of a long-term downtrend. This same formation was last seen in May 2022 and preceded a sharp 54% correction in Tesla’s share price, suggesting the risk of another significant retracement if bearish sentiment persists.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below the neutral 50 mark and now hovers in the 42–45 zone, indicating that selling pressure is outpacing buying interest. Volume has increased on down days, adding to the evidence that institutional investors may be rotating out of the name. Tesla bulls have repeatedly failed to reclaim the $250 level, reinforcing it as a short-term resistance barrier.
TSLA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Immediate support is found at $225, a psychologically important level and a previous base from late 2023. Should bearish momentum intensify, the stock may drift toward $186, a significant low from the last correction phase. To the upside, resistance levels to watch include $263.82, $289, and further out, $360 and $430. However, given the weakening technical structure, any rallies are likely to be met with skepticism unless driven by strong catalysts.
Political and sales pressures
The next key driver for Tesla is its Q1 2025 earnings report, scheduled after the market close on Tuesday. Implied volatility is high, with options markets forecasting a post-earnings swing of approximately 9.3% in either direction. This sets a projected trading range between $218.92 and $263.82 based on the current price. Such wide expectations highlight the uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s financial and strategic outlook.
Fundamentally, Tesla is grappling with several macro and micro headwinds. Global EV sales have been softening, particularly in the U.S. and China, where increased competition and waning consumer enthusiasm have impacted demand. Tesla has also been forced to offer repeated price cuts across key markets, weighing on margins.
Still, Tesla maintains a narrative of innovation that continues to appeal to long-term bulls. Musk has promised a robotaxi unveiling in Austin this summer, which could mark a leap in Tesla’s autonomous vehicle ambitions. Likewise, developments around the Optimus humanoid robot and Tesla’s in-house AI stack could serve as a differentiator—if they deliver tangible results. However, these projects remain speculative without firm monetization timelines.
Earnings outcome to drive next big move
Tesla’s short-term outlook is highly binary going into earnings. Should the company beat expectations and issue favorable guidance, especially around vehicle deliveries, margins, and AI progress, the stock could quickly climb to challenge $263 and even $289 resistance levels. A strong beat could also temporarily override the bearish technical signals.
On the other hand, a miss—whether on the top line, margins, or delivery volumes—would likely push the stock below $225, potentially testing the $186 level if selling accelerates. Given the death cross and the company’s recent struggles, the more probable near-term scenario favors downside risk.
Tesla's recent stock decline stems from strategic shifts and broader economic pressures. Investor skepticism has grown following the delay of its affordable EV model in favor of a robotaxi initiative, now postponed to 2026, removing a key short-term growth driver.
