Nvidia stock climbs above $102 as institutional selling caps upside
Firms such as Prossimo Advisors LLC have increased their Nvidia holdings
As of April 24, 2025, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading at $102.71, up 3.8% in the past 24 hours.
This bounce offers short-term relief but does not change the underlying bearish technical setup. The stock is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently at $117.41 and $126.04, respectively. The presence of a “death cross,” where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA, confirms a longer-term downtrend that began in Q1 2025.
In terms of price structure, Nvidia continues to form a falling wedge pattern. This classic technical setup indicates consolidation within a broader downtrend. The nearest support levels are at $96.46 and $94.31, while upside resistance sits around $105.38–$108.26, followed by stronger ceilings at $127.06 and $148.88. These upper thresholds would require substantial momentum to overcome, which is not yet present in the technicals.
NVDA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Momentum indicators also confirm bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 38.46, suggesting the stock is nearing oversold territory. While this level often precedes technical bounces, persistent selling pressure can keep RSI suppressed for extended periods. Additionally, volume trends have been declining, which undermines the sustainability of any short-term rallies.
Export restrictions and institutional repositioning pressure Nvidia
Nvidia’s price action is not just technical—macro and regulatory developments are exerting heavy pressure. The biggest headline impacting sentiment is the $5.5 billion estimated revenue loss tied to U.S. export controls on Nvidia’s advanced H20 AI chips to China. These chips are central to Nvidia’s strategy for AI compute markets in Asia, and the restrictions have severely limited near-term earnings potential.
In an attempt to mitigate fallout, CEO Jensen Huang has traveled to Beijing to engage in high-level talks with Chinese clients and officials. The outcome of these negotiations remains uncertain, but they highlight how geopolitics have become a central risk factor for Nvidia’s business model.
On the institutional side, recent 13F filings show Trivest Advisors Ltd slashed its stake in Nvidia by over 74% in Q4 2024. This significant drawdown from a top institutional holder is not isolated—data shows a broader trend of portfolio de-risking around high-valuation AI tech names. However, there is still a split view among institutions. Firms such as Prossimo Advisors LLC have increased their Nvidia holdings, suggesting that not all large investors are bearish.
Near-term retest of $96 likely before any sustained rebound
Based on both the technical landscape and ongoing macro risks, Nvidia is likely to face continued downside in the near term. Unless the stock can reclaim and hold above the $108 resistance level with volume support, price action will remain corrective. A breakdown below $96.46 would likely send the stock toward the next major floor at $94.31, and potentially even lower toward the psychologically important $90 mark.
Short-term models forecast Nvidia’s price to range between $98.15 and $115.21 over the next 5–7 sessions. A moderate decline to $95.92 by May 1 is possible, especially if no positive resolution emerges from Huang’s Beijing trip.
Nvidia's next-gen Blackwell chips are seeing strong demand from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, reinforcing its central role in AI infrastructure growth. However, investor caution persists due to potential near-term oversupply risks and uncertainties around AI monetization and broader macro conditions.
