Tesla stock rises 20% from March low as new EV model hopes offset earnings miss
The company reported a 40% year-over-year decline in earnings per share.
As of April 25, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is trading at $259.51, continuing a modest recovery from its March low of $214.25. The stock has gained more than 20% in the past month but remains down nearly 39% year-to-date, and still trades 49% below its late 2024 peak of $488.54.
From a technical standpoint, the rebound appears to be testing a critical zone. Tesla is now approaching the 200-day moving average (MA), currently near $289, which represents a pivotal resistance level. A clean break above this MA could confirm a shift in momentum and open the path toward the $315 resistance area, which served as a local high in January 2025. If bullish momentum strengthens further, the next major level to watch is $360, which coincides with the descending trendline from the November 2024 peak.
That said, bearish technical patterns still dominate the broader picture. Notably, a death cross remains in place, where the 50-day MA sits well below the 200-day MA, reinforcing the idea that the longer-term downtrend is intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 56, just below overbought territory, suggesting room for a further move higher — but only if buyers can maintain control above the current price channel.
TSLA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
On the downside, initial support lies at $225, followed by a more robust floor at $206. A break below these levels would likely lead to a retest of the March lows at $214.25, and potentially toward the psychological $200 mark, which acted as support multiple times in 2023 and early 2024.
Earnings miss and Musk’s politics cloud outlook
Tesla’s recent Q1 2025 earnings report added pressure to an already fragile sentiment. The company reported a 40% year-over-year decline in earnings per share to $0.27, and revenue dropped 9% to $19.335 billion, falling short of Wall Street expectations. Particularly concerning was a 20% slump in automotive revenue and a drop in gross margin (ex-regulatory credits) to 12.5% — Tesla's lowest since 2012.
Investors were further rattled by Tesla’s decision to withdraw 2025 vehicle delivery guidance, citing geopolitical uncertainties and trade tension risks. Analysts flagged this move as a signal of internal caution, especially as global EV demand growth moderates and competition intensifies from Chinese and European manufacturers.
Another cloud over the stock is Elon Musk’s controversial political involvement. His appointment to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration sparked backlash from both institutional investors and consumers, raising concerns over Tesla’s brand image. A recent Barclays note suggested this could result in a 10% hit to future EV demand, though Musk’s announcement to scale back political activity and refocus on Tesla helped temper the selloff.
Upside capped unless breakout confirms
Looking forward, the outlook for Tesla stock is cautiously optimistic — with clear conditions. In the near term, a sustained breakout above the $289 resistance would be a bullish signal, possibly driving a rally toward $315 and $360. Such a move would require not just technical momentum, but also improved sentiment around earnings, growth guidance, and Musk’s leadership stability.
Conversely, if TSLA fails to break above the 200-day MA, it could trigger another leg lower, first toward $225, and potentially down to $206 or $200 in a deeper pullback. Macroeconomic factors, such as Fed policy, U.S.-China tariffs, and consumer demand for EVs, will continue to be decisive.
Investor sentiment improved after Elon Musk announced he would step back from his government role to focus solely on Tesla. This eased concerns about his divided attention during a challenging period for the company, sparking speculative buying and a short-covering rally.
