Nvidia stock rebounds 3.6% as U.S. chip curbs and China demand weigh on outlook
Relative strength index (RSI) readings remain neutral.
As of April 25, 2025, Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading at $106.43, up 3.6% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a short-term rebound from recent lows. However, despite this uptick, the stock remains in a technically precarious position.
Notably, Nvidia recently formed a "death cross," where the 50-day moving average ($127.39) dropped below the 200-day moving average ($127.73). This pattern is widely interpreted by technical analysts as a bearish signal, indicating the possibility of further price declines over the medium term.
Key support levels for the stock are found at $105, with a more critical support zone near $96. These levels coincide with the peaks observed in March and troughs from August 2024, respectively. Should the $96 threshold be breached, a drop toward $76 could be on the table, marking a retracement to levels not seen since mid-2023. On the upside, resistance is evident at $130 and $150, both corresponding to areas of recent price rejection and the upper bounds of the current channel.
NVDA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Relative strength index (RSI) readings remain neutral but skewed toward the lower end, indicating that while the stock is not yet oversold, downside pressure remains. Volume profiles also show more trading activity on down days than up days recently, confirming institutional selling patterns.
Regulatory risks and AI cycle rotation
The weakness in Nvidia stock is not solely technical. The broader market narrative around Nvidia has shifted notably since the start of 2025. Chief among the headwinds is regulatory pressure stemming from tightened U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips. Nvidia has incurred a $5.5 billion inventory-related charge due to these restrictions, primarily affecting its high-performance H20 chips meant for Chinese markets.
Although Nvidia continues to be at the forefront of innovation in AI, with CEO Jensen Huang unveiling cutting-edge platforms and a new strategic collaboration with General Motors for AI-based driver assistance systems, the market has not responded enthusiastically. Investors appear to be recalibrating for a slowdown in the generative AI hype cycle, with capital rotating into broader semiconductor plays and value sectors.
Analyst John Vinh referred to Nvidia’s ongoing strategy as “the right move at the right time” in the long term, citing its investment in inference and training chip diversification. However, in the near term, Vinh acknowledged that geopolitical and regulatory overhangs are likely to keep sentiment muted.
Watch $96 for confirmation of breakdown
If the stock fails to reclaim the $115–$120 zone convincingly, it will likely retest the $105 level soon. A clean break below this threshold opens the door to $96—a level that, if breached, would confirm a full reversal of the late 2024 rally. In the event of sustained selling pressure, Nvidia could slip toward $76, a level consistent with previous consolidation zones.
Conversely, a decisive breakout above $130 would invalidate the current bearish pattern and reintroduce bullish momentum, although that scenario currently appears less probable without a significant positive catalyst such as eased regulations or a breakthrough earnings report.
Nvidia’s recent price action reflects more than technical factors, as macro and regulatory pressures continue to weigh heavily. The most significant driver is a $5.5 billion revenue hit linked to U.S. export controls on its H20 AI chips, disrupting its key growth strategy in Asia.
