WTI price trades near $63 as ceasefire hopes and OPEC+ outlook weigh
Crude oil prices tread water near $63 as ceasefire talks and OPEC+ output weigh on market mood
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices traded around $62.84 per barrel early Friday in Europe, advancing modestly from Thursday’s close but still poised for a weekly loss. Traders continue to weigh potential shifts in global supply dynamics as reports suggest progress in ceasefire talks between the United States and Russia, potentially leading to a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. A resolution could open the door for increased Russian oil flows, adding to oversupply concerns.
Adding pressure, several OPEC+ members are expected to propose another month of accelerated output hikes at the group’s June meeting. Kazakhstan, a significant OPEC+ ally, reiterated this week that it will not cut output from its major oil fields and will prioritize national production targets. The market reaction has been cautious, with prices largely constrained within a narrow range.
USOIL price forecast (March 2025 - April 2025) Source: TradingView.
Technical levels suggest indecision amid macro uncertainty
WTI is currently grinding sideways just above a rising trendline, with technical resistance forming near $63.37—the 200-period exponential moving average. The 50 EMA, currently at $62.80, offers short-term dynamic support, creating a tight squeeze setup. A breakout above $63.37 could lead to a test of $64.83, but a break below $61.53 may expose the $60.23 zone.
Brent crude is also showing signs of compression, trading near $66.06 and struggling to break through dual resistance at $66.18—aligned with both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA. A failure to reclaim $66.99 could send prices lower toward $63.73 or $61.95. Conversely, a close above the resistance zone would signal the potential for a trend reversal.
De-escalation in trade tensions lends marginal support
Supporting sentiment, China is reportedly considering a reduction in tariffs on certain U.S. imports. While the broader impact on demand remains uncertain, the gesture signals a possible easing in trade friction between the world’s two largest oil consumers. Meanwhile, new U.S. sanctions imposed on an Iranian energy official earlier this week are expected to limit any near-term increase in Iranian supply, offering modest support to prices.
As noted earlier this week, crude’s trajectory remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainty, with upcoming OPEC+ policy decisions and ceasefire negotiations likely to determine the next leg of direction. Until a clear breakout occurs, traders may find little incentive to take strong directional positions.
