Natural gas price dips as mild weather, record renewables, and weak Asian demand cap gains
Natural gas prices pressured by mild U.S. weather, record renewable output, and strong European LNG supply
Natural gas futures in the U.S. hovered near $2.909 per MMBtu on Friday, struggling to gain traction after a bigger-than-expected storage injection renewed concerns over oversupply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an 88 billion cubic feet (Bcf) addition to storage, surpassing consensus estimates and reinforcing expectations that inventories may soon flip into a surplus compared to the five-year average.
Contributing to the bearish sentiment, near-perfect spring weather across much of the country has reduced the need for heating or cooling, while robust renewable energy output — particularly from solar and wind — continues to displace gas-fired power generation. Analysts at NatGasWeather.com noted that “clearly, bearish weather patterns have been weighing on prices the past couple weeks.”
Natural gas price dynamics (October 2024 - April 2025) Source: TradingView.
European LNG surge adds to global supply glut
On the global front, European natural gas prices fell below €34/MWh in April, reaching a seven-month low amid surging LNG inflows and declining Asian demand. Deliveries to Dutch terminals exceeded seasonal norms, allowing European nations to rebuild storage inventories rapidly after winter.
At the same time, weaker-than-expected LNG imports into China and India contributed to oversupply. China’s purchases dropped more than 20% month-over-month due to macroeconomic headwinds linked to the U.S.-China trade conflict. India’s shift to thermal coal, now trading at a four-year low, has also reduced LNG reliance. This rebalancing has reinforced bearish pressure on global gas benchmarks.
Technical outlook shows downward bias remains intact
Technically, natural gas remains locked in a descending channel, with price capped beneath resistance at $2.975. Both the 50 EMA ($3.034) and 200 EMA ($3.387) slope downward, confirming the broader bearish trend. If NG fails to hold above $2.900, it could slide toward $2.870 or even $2.796. A breakout above $2.975 with strong volume may spark a recovery to $3.077 or $3.155, though such a move remains elusive without a fundamental catalyst.
As noted earlier this week, the narrowing technical range and muted volatility continue to reflect market indecision. Until weather or global demand signals shift meaningfully, natural gas may remain bound in a low-range consolidation zone.
