Crude oil trades near $63 as traders weigh trade optimism against supply risks
WTI crude stabilizes near $63.31 as traders weigh OPEC+, Iran talks, and U.S.-China trade outlook
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded around $63.31 per barrel on Monday, rising slightly in early European trade on signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. While formal negotiations remain unconfirmed, recent rhetoric from both sides has been more conciliatory, with China exempting some U.S. imports from its retaliatory tariffs and President Trump softening his stance.
However, this optimism is tempered by renewed concerns about potential oversupply, as progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and the prospect of increased OPEC+ production threaten to swell global inventories.
Geopolitical headlines are adding another layer of complexity. While the U.S. and Iran reported tentative progress in their diplomatic efforts, North Korea's confirmation that it has sent troops to support Russia in the ongoing Ukraine war has reignited broader geopolitical tensions. A high-level meeting between President Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far failed to produce a breakthrough, with U.S. officials suggesting Washington may step back from mediation efforts if no progress is made.
USOIL price movement (March 2025 - April 2025) Source: TradingView.
Technical outlook remains cautiously bullish
Technically, WTI is attempting to solidify gains above its pivot level of $62.79, with resistance at $64.83 in focus. A successful breakout could expose higher levels at $65.97 and $67.14. The 50 EMA has begun to slope upward at $62.83, offering dynamic support, while the 200 EMA at $63.31 continues to act as overhead resistance.
Meanwhile, Brent crude trades near $66.06 and is pressing against its own pivot at $66.18. A sustained move higher could trigger a rally toward $68.45. However, momentum remains capped by converging moving averages and trendlines, indicating a breakout—or breakdown—could be imminent.
What to watch next
The broader narrative remains uncertain. While trade-related optimism is lending crude some support, persistent fears of a supply glut—driven by Iran, OPEC+, and geopolitical tensions—are keeping bulls in check. Traders are advised to await directional confirmation, particularly in the $64.83–$65.97 region for WTI.
As previously noted, WTI’s consolidation between $62 and $63 continues to build tension. A confirmed breakout above $64.83 would validate the short-term bullish bias outlined in our earlier sessions.
