Nvidia stock extends rally to $111 as AI optimism clashes with new regulatory risks
Investors are refocusing on AI-related growth stories.
As of April 28, 2025, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades at $111.01, marking a 4.3% gain over the last 24 hours.
This performance extends Nvidia’s winning streak to four consecutive sessions, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
The stock now trades firmly above its 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are trending upwards—a strong technical signal of short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 74.2, signaling that Nvidia is entering overbought territory.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, supporting the view that upward momentum is still dominant. However, caution is warranted: despite the recent rally, Nvidia remains down approximately 27.5% from its 52-week high of $153.13, set in January 2025. Interestingly, the broader technical structure reveals mixed signals. A "death cross" was confirmed earlier this quarter when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average.
NVDA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
Typically, this indicates potential weakness in the medium-to-long-term horizon, even if current price action remains bullish. Support levels are established around $96.30 and $100.00, while immediate resistance lies at $116.65, with further hurdles at $121.64 and $129.91. Volume has also surged to over 251 million shares traded intraday, emphasizing that the recent move is supported by strong market participation—a positive sign for near-term bulls.
AI-driven optimism battles new regulatory pressures
Nvidia’s latest rally fits into a broader narrative of renewed enthusiasm in the technology sector, particularly among the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Investors are refocusing on AI-related growth stories, with Nvidia being one of the clearest beneficiaries. Key industry players like Amazon have recently reiterated major investments in AI infrastructure, boosting confidence in companies critical to the AI supply chain, such as Nvidia.
However, despite this positive backdrop, looming regulatory risks threaten to dampen Nvidia’s growth outlook. The upcoming "AI Diffusion Rule," set to be implemented on May 15, 2025, could materially impact Nvidia's revenues and profitability. Analysts at BofA Securities warn that compliance costs and trade restrictions may cut Nvidia’s annual sales by up to 10% and earnings per share by approximately 11%.
Adding further complexity, the U.S. recently imposed a 32% tariff on imports from Taiwan, which could disrupt Nvidia’s supply chain and elevate its production costs, especially since many of Nvidia’s chips are manufactured by Taiwan-based TSMC. Any disruption here could ripple through Nvidia’s revenue forecasts and margin expectations for the remainder of 2025.
Consolidation phase likely before next earnings catalyst
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s stock is likely to encounter strong resistance between $116 and $121. Given the RSI breaching the overbought zone and the presence of the death cross in its technical chart, a consolidation phase or minor pullback is a probable short-term scenario.
Immediate support is situated around $105, while stronger support is located closer to the $96-$100 zone. If Nvidia breaks above $116.65 convincingly with solid volume, a rally toward $129.91 could be initiated, though this would require favorable news flow—likely from strong earnings or regulatory clarity.
Analyst John Vinh praised Nvidia’s strategy of diversifying its inference and training chips as a smart long-term move. However, he noted that near-term sentiment may remain subdued due to geopolitical and regulatory pressures.
