Nvidia stock edges up to $109 as AI revenue jumps 78% despite China risks
Nvidia remains at the center of the artificial intelligence boom
As of April 30, Nvidia stock is trading at $109.02, up 0.3% in the past 24 hours. Technically, the stock is attempting to rebound after recently dipping below the psychological $100 mark.
The chart shows Nvidia forming a falling wedge pattern, typically considered a bullish reversal formation. This suggests a possible breakout to the upside if confirmed by higher volume and a close above the upper trendline. Currently, immediate resistance lies at $115, followed by a more substantial barrier near $130. These levels will be closely watched by traders looking for signs of sustained momentum.
Support zones are forming at $96, which served as the local low earlier this month, and a more critical floor around $87. These levels represent key battlegrounds for bulls and bears alike. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed back above 50, indicating a shift toward bullish sentiment after several weeks in neutral-to-bearish territory. The MACD histogram also shows signs of convergence, adding to the case for potential upside if follow-through buying continues.
NVDA stock price dynamics (February 2025 - April 2025). Source: TradingView.
However, traders should remain cautious. A technical “death cross” recently occurred, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. This is traditionally viewed as a bearish signal and could indicate further downside risks if Nvidia fails to hold above its recent support levels. In short, while a bullish reversal is possible, confirmation is needed before committing to a breakout narrative.
AI growth meets geopolitical pressure
Nvidia remains at the center of the artificial intelligence boom. The company's most recent earnings report showed a 78% year-over-year surge in revenue, driven primarily by explosive demand for its H100 AI accelerators and datacenter GPUs. The total revenue hit $39.3 billion, and analysts are optimistic about continued demand from major cloud service providers and enterprises investing heavily in generative AI infrastructure.
However, macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are complicating Nvidia’s growth trajectory. One major concern is the tightening U.S. export controls on advanced chips to China, which could affect Nvidia’s ability to sell high-performance GPUs to a major market. Although the company has developed modified chips to comply with U.S. regulations, competitors like Huawei are beginning to roll out alternatives that could threaten Nvidia’s share in the region. Additionally, the risk of an escalation in U.S.-China tech tensions casts a long shadow over the stock’s longer-term outlook.
In parallel, the tech sector at large is experiencing renewed volatility, as investors reassess valuations amid changing interest rate expectations. While Nvidia remains a standout in terms of fundamentals, its high valuation makes it more sensitive to broader market shifts.
Cautious optimism with volatility ahead
In the near term, Nvidia appears poised for a test of the $115 resistance level. A clear breakout above that could trigger a rally toward $130, particularly if fueled by bullish earnings momentum and improving market sentiment. However, upside progress may be choppy, and any failure to hold the $105–$110 region could invite another round of selling pressure.
Should the stock break below the $96 support, a slide toward $87 is likely, with the 200-day moving average providing the next level of technical interest. On balance, the path of least resistance over the next few weeks appears cautiously higher, provided broader equity markets remain stable and Nvidia maintains leadership in the AI semiconductor space.
China is a key growth market for Nvidia, particularly in AI and data centers, making it vital to the company’s global revenue. Rising competition from Huawei, driven by China’s push for tech independence amid geopolitical tensions, threatens Nvidia’s position in the region.
