U.S. Dollar Index eyes directional shift amid U.S. growth and inflation data release
Dollar Index stuck in 1% range as traders await key U.S. economic data.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has remained locked within a narrow 1% range between 98.50 and 99.50 for six consecutive trading days.
This tight consolidation reflects a lack of directional momentum, with multiple intraday double tops and bottoms forming during the week. Market indecision is growing as traders position cautiously ahead of major economic releases that could break the stalemate.
This calm may not last much longer. Three high-impact data points are scheduled to be released: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (forecast: 114K, previous: 155K), Advance GDP q/q (forecast: 0.2%, previous: 2.4%), and Core PCE Price Index m/m (forecast: 0.1%, previous: 0.4%). All three figures serve as critical gauges of economic strength and inflation. Surprises, especially in GDP and Core PCE, could significantly influence expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
The Dollar Index shows neutral RSI as the market braces for ADP miss or GDP shock
On the technical side, the 99.50 mark serves as immediate resistance, while the psychological 100 level backed by the 20-day moving average sits just above it. A strong set of data could push the dollar through these levels, restoring some of last week’s bullish momentum.
DXY price dynamics (April 2025). Source: TradingView
On the downside, 98.50 remains a critical support. A break below it, especially in response to weaker-than-expected data, may open the door to deeper declines in the months ahead. Currently, the 4-hour RSI is flat in neutral territory, confirming that the market is coiled and waiting for a catalyst.
In short, the Dollar Index is at a technical and fundamental inflection point. Whether it breaks higher or lower will depend heavily on how today’s U.S. data reshapes market expectations—particularly around employment, growth, and inflation.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell after last week’s trade optimism faded and tariff concerns returned. Bearish RSI and resistance near 98.90 signalled more downside ahead.
