30.04.2025
Jainam Mehta
Contributor
30.04.2025

Natural gas price rebounds as traders eye summer heat and LNG surge for momentum boost

Natural gas price rebounds as traders eye summer heat and LNG surge for momentum boost Natural gas trades near $3.386 as bulls test trendline resistance. Summer weather could be the catalyst

U.S. natural gas futures extended their rally into a third straight session on Wednesday, lifted by rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas flows and a pullback in output that helped offset lingering bearish fundamentals. Front-month Henry Hub contracts settled 1.3% higher at $3.386 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), building on Monday’s recovery from a five-month low of $3.00 touched last week.

The technical landscape has shifted in favor of the bulls, with prices now pressing against the $3.40 pivot on the two-hour chart. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a rally toward $3.517 and even $3.746, though the descending trendline remains a barrier. Immediate support is found at $3.254, while the 50 EMA has crossed below the price, signaling near-term strength. However, the 200 EMA at $3.473 still caps upside momentum, maintaining a broader cautionary tone.

Natural gas price dynamics (April 2025) Source: TradingView.

Weather and LNG exports reshape supply-demand outlook

From a fundamental perspective, the recent rally comes despite signs of softening demand due to mild spring weather. Average gas production in the Lower 48 rose to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April—an increase from the March record—while heating and cooling demand remains muted. Still, traders are increasingly focused on weather forecasts that predict above-average summer heat, particularly in the western and southern United States, which could sharply increase power sector gas burn.

Another key driver is the continued recovery in LNG export demand. Feedgas flows to U.S. terminals have averaged 16.0 bcfd in April, a new high, supported by fresh volumes from Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility in Louisiana. Analysts see the revival in LNG exports as a potential buffer against domestic oversupply, particularly if storage builds remain smaller than expected as they did last week.

As previously discussed in our April outlook, the natural gas market is highly sensitive to production-surplus dynamics and short-term weather catalysts. With storage builds in focus and summer heat looming, the market could remain volatile, especially if technical resistance at $3.40 is breached.

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