Nvidia stock declines below $109 as Super Micro warning rattles chipmakers
Nvidia is grappling with geopolitical risks related to U.S. semiconductor export policy
As of May 1, Nvidia stock is trading at $108.92, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. The stock has continued to face downward pressure following a steep drop earlier in the week, closing just below its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA).
This level, which previously acted as short-term support, has now turned into resistance, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. Nvidia is currently testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $107.50, a level that historically has provided strong buying interest. However, failure to hold this support could lead to further losses.
The short-term technical indicators remain bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 42, signaling weakening momentum but not yet reaching oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has formed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line falling below the signal line and the histogram turning negative. This suggests increasing downward momentum over the near term.
NVDA stock price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025). Source: TradingView.
Volume surged to over 217 million shares during the last trading session, far above the 30-day average, which confirms the strength of the selling pressure. If Nvidia breaks below the $107.50 support, the next key level to watch will be $102.70, which marks the April 23 swing low. A breakdown of that zone could open the door to a move toward the psychologically important $100 level, with a broader downside target range of $98 to $100 if bearish sentiment intensifies.
Partner profit warning and trade policy tensions cloud outlook
The latest selloff in Nvidia stock is largely driven by disappointing guidance from Super Micro Computer, one of its largest partners in the AI server ecosystem. Super Micro slashed its third-quarter revenue forecast from a range of $4.9–5.3 billion to just $3.8–4.1 billion, citing delayed purchases by enterprise clients and a buildup of older-generation Nvidia Hopper GPU inventory. This development has cast a shadow over the near-term outlook for AI hardware demand, raising concerns that even industry leaders like Nvidia may face short-term sales disruption as customers pause to wait for next-generation Blackwell chips.
In parallel, Nvidia is grappling with geopolitical risks related to U.S. semiconductor export policy. CEO Jensen Huang has publicly called on former President Donald Trump, who is leading in some 2024 election polls, to amend the current AI chip export restrictions enacted under the Biden administration. These rules, set to take effect in mid-May, would prohibit the sale of Nvidia's most advanced AI chips, including those built on its Blackwell architecture, to certain foreign markets, particularly in Asia. The potential revenue impact of these restrictions is significant, as Nvidia earns a considerable portion of its data center revenue from international clients.
Beyond company-specific developments, the broader market is facing macroeconomic uncertainty. Recent data showing a 0.3% contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter and weaker-than-expected job creation have increased concerns about a potential economic slowdown. These factors have contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding high-valuation technology stocks, including Nvidia, which has been one of the market’s top performers over the past year.
Risk skewed to downside without policy clarity or revenue catalyst
With Nvidia stock now trending below key short-term moving averages and sentiment turning bearish across the AI sector, downside risks remain elevated in the near term. If the $107.50 level fails to hold, traders should expect the stock to test support at $102.70, with the possibility of a further slide toward the $98–$100 area. These levels would represent a 10–12% pullback from recent highs, aligning with typical corrective patterns for high-beta stocks like Nvidia.
On the upside, a clear bullish catalyst would be needed to reverse the recent slide. This could take the form of revised US trade policy that allows for greater international chip sales, or a strong earnings report from Nvidia or other AI leaders that revives investor optimism. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure near the $112–$114 range, where multiple resistance levels converge.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, particularly tightened U.S. export controls, are threatening Nvidia’s access to key markets like China. While Nvidia has adapted with compliant chips, rising competition from local players like Huawei and ongoing U.S.-China tech tensions pose risks to its long-term growth.
