WTI crude price plunges to three-week low as OPEC+ signals supply boost and U.S. growth falters
WTI crude trades below $58 as supply risks and U.S. economic weakness deepen the bearish tone
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extended its decline on Thursday, falling for a fourth straight session to trade near $57.20 per barrel—its lowest level in three weeks. The renewed selloff reflects growing market anxiety over the possibility of increased output from Saudi-led OPEC+ and rising signs of weakening global demand as economic headwinds mount.
Oil prices have now shed more than 20% since President Donald Trump’s second term began, a retreat that has cast fresh doubts over U.S. energy sector resilience.
USOIL price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025) Source: TradingView.
OPEC+ signals and Trump’s trade policy fuel downside
The sharp move lower was primarily driven by reports that Saudi Arabia has informed industry insiders and OPEC+ partners that it is prepared to endure lower prices and will not support additional production cuts. This posture has led analysts to expect a potential announcement of output increases when OPEC+ meets on May 5, a shift that would exacerbate the supply glut concerns already looming over global oil markets.
At the same time, the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025, registering a 0.3% annualized decline. It marked the country’s first economic downturn in three years and came as a direct blow to energy demand forecasts. The slump, which missed expectations of modest 0.4% growth, was attributed in part to disruptions stemming from President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy, which has sparked a wave of trade tension and uncertainty across global supply chains.
Inventory draw offers only limited relief
While bearish fundamentals dominate, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration provided a modest cushion. Crude stockpiles fell by 2.7 million barrels last week, significantly more than the anticipated 1 million-barrel draw. The drop was supported by rising refinery utilization and strong export demand. Nevertheless, the positive surprise was not enough to offset broader macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns weighing on oil prices.
As previously discussed in our recent WTI outlook, the $57–$58 support region marks a key technical pivot. A breakdown below this zone may accelerate the selloff toward the $54.60 level, while a bounce would require a shift in supply rhetoric from OPEC+ and stabilization in economic data.
