WTI crude oil price steadies near $58.50 as trade optimism clashes with supply fears
WTI crude struggles near $58.50 as easing trade tensions support gains, but oversupply fears persist
WTI crude oil futures traded near $58.50 per barrel on Friday, staging a modest rebound from a three-week low as investors digested mixed signals on global trade and supply dynamics. Sentiment improved following comments from China’s Commerce Ministry that signaled openness to resuming trade talks with the United States, a development reinforced by President Donald Trump’s own remarks about possible agreements.
The renewed diplomatic tone between the world’s two largest oil consumers helped ease immediate concerns over global demand.
Additional bullish momentum stemmed from Washington’s hardline stance on Iranian oil exports, as the White House threatened secondary sanctions on countries purchasing crude from Tehran. The U.S. dollar’s pullback from a multi-week high also lent mild support to oil prices. However, these positives were counterbalanced by a disappointing U.S. GDP print and ongoing weakness in China’s manufacturing sector—both of which signaled waning demand in key economies.
USOIL price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025) Source: TradingView.
Technical ceiling remains firm as bears test $58 support
Despite the bounce, WTI is still set for a weekly decline of nearly 5%, underscoring persistent pressure from supply-side expectations. Saudi Arabia’s openness to lower prices and potential advocacy for increased OPEC+ output at the May meeting has cast a long shadow on the rally, limiting scope for sustained upside.
From a technical standpoint, WTI remains vulnerable. The $65.00 region continues to act as a ceiling following a rejection last week, and oscillators on the daily chart lean bearish. Traders are watching the $58.00 level closely; a confirmed break below it could open the door to $56.60 and potentially test April’s low near $55.00. Conversely, if prices recover beyond $59.55, a short-covering rally may lift the market toward $60.80–$61.00, though resistance is expected to stiffen at those levels.
In earlier coverage, we noted WTI's inability to hold above $60 amid trade-related volatility and rising inventory concerns. That outlook remains valid, as temporary rallies continue to struggle for follow-through. Until OPEC+ clarifies its supply stance and global demand signals stabilize, WTI is likely to remain range-bound with downside risks prevailing near term.
