Nvidia stock rises 2.6% as AI rivalry and export curbs weigh
Year-to-date, Nvidia shares are down approximately 20%
As of May 5, Nvidia stock is trading at $114.50, up 2.6% from the previous close. The price action shows signs of strength after a recent rebound from the $96 support area in April.
From a technical perspective, several indicators point to growing upside pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 56.5, moving closer to the bullish threshold of 70, but still allowing room for continued gains. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory at 0.49, with the MACD line trending above its signal line, confirming near-term bullish momentum.
Key resistance levels include $115, which aligns with the recent swing high from April and also serves as the breakout point from the current wedge formation. A successful breach of this level, with confirmation from volume, could open the door for a move toward the next significant resistance at $130. This level coincides with previous price congestion seen in March and February 2025, where sellers previously took control.
NVDA stock price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025). Source: TradingView.
On the downside, Nvidia has firm support at $96. This level acted as a springboard for the current rally and matches a critical Fibonacci retracement from the late 2024 uptrend. A break below this support would bring $87 into focus, where the stock consolidated for multiple weeks earlier this year. However, for now, the momentum favors the bulls.
Growth expectations face headwinds from regulation and competition
While Nvidia remains a cornerstone of the AI-driven tech rally, it has not been immune to macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Year-to-date, Nvidia shares are down approximately 20%, largely due to external pressures including export restrictions and emerging competition. In particular, the U.S. government's continued curbs on high-end chip exports to China have directly impacted Nvidia’s ability to ship its H20 and other advanced GPUs to one of its key markets.
Compounding the pressure is Huawei’s rise as a credible competitor in the AI chip space. The Chinese tech giant has made significant strides in developing alternatives to Nvidia’s hardware, putting future market share in question. While Nvidia still leads in terms of performance and software ecosystem support, these developments warrant attention from long-term investors.
Despite these headwinds, the broader equity markets have shown resilience. On May 1, the Nasdaq surged, led by tech majors including Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft. Nvidia saw a one-day gain of over 4%, supported by strong earnings reports and renewed interest in AI-focused growth. This broader bullish sentiment may serve as a tailwind for Nvidia in the short term, especially if macroeconomic data continues to favor a soft landing scenario for the U.S. economy.
Short-term rally possible, but caution warranted
Looking ahead, Nvidia stock is well-positioned for a short-term rally if it can decisively break through the $115 resistance zone. A sustained move above this level would likely bring in technical buyers and could accelerate the rally toward $130. This scenario assumes continued positive sentiment in the tech sector and no major negative catalysts such as regulatory shocks or disappointing earnings.
However, traders should remain cautious. While the technicals currently favor the bulls, any reversal in market sentiment—particularly related to rising bond yields or weakening economic indicators—could result in a swift retest of the $96 support. A break below that level would invalidate the bullish breakout thesis and likely result in a deeper correction toward $87.
Nvidia’s stock is heavily influenced by its leadership in AI and data center technologies, driven by demand for its high-performance GPUs. Recent gains followed announcements from Meta and Microsoft, both ramping up AI infrastructure spending that directly supports Nvidia’s core business.
