WTI crude oil price holds near $60 as trade talks and OPEC+ output shift shape outlook
WTI crude hovers below $60 as supply cuts ease and trade optimism builds between U.S. and China
WTI crude oil price today is hovering just under $60 per barrel after gaining more than 3% in the previous session, supported by optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations and evidence of tightening supply in the U.S. energy market. Investors appear cautiously optimistic as Washington and Beijing prepare to resume direct economic talks in Switzerland later this week.
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the goal of the talks will be to de-escalate tariff tensions rather than reach a sweeping trade deal. Tariffs between the two countries have risen dramatically since 2024, with U.S. levies reaching 145% on Chinese goods and Chinese countermeasures climbing to 125%. Analysts say even partial easing could be bullish for oil demand, particularly as China remains the world’s largest crude importer.
Adding to the upbeat sentiment, the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise draw of 4.5 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks last week, well above the forecast of 2.5 million. Meanwhile, rig count reductions by Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy are being interpreted as a sign of disciplined U.S. production ahead.
USOIL price dynamics (September 2024 - May 2025) Source: TradingView.
OPEC+ ramps up output despite demand optimism
While bullish signals from demand and inventory are lifting sentiment, downside risks remain due to OPEC+'s decision to accelerate the unwinding of production curbs. The group confirmed it would increase supply by 960,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June—up from previous expectations—after Kazakhstan raised concerns about national underutilization caused by output limits.
The production shift, totaling 2.2 million bpd since September 2022, may temper further upside in WTI prices if global demand growth falls short. Still, improving European earnings forecasts and a surge in Chinese holiday spending provide counterbalance.
WTI crude forecast: Watch $60 breakout as volatility builds
WTI's near-term outlook hinges on its ability to break and hold above the psychologically significant $60 level. If U.S.-China trade talks yield signs of tariff relief, bulls could target fresh highs, particularly if U.S. production remains constrained. Conversely, a failure to clear $60 cleanly could invite consolidation back toward the mid-$58 zone.
As previously discussed in our April oil forecast, WTI was vulnerable to downside pressure if OPEC+ accelerated supply. That risk has materialized, but easing trade tensions and bullish inventory trends now provide a potential counterweight.
