Silver price remains below 100-day EMA ahead of U.S. payroll report
Silver price struggles to break $30.40 resistance amid strong dollar and mixed Chinese economic signals
Silver prices remain confined within a broader consolidation range of $29.00 to $31.50, with near-term resistance forming around $30.40.
Despite slight improvements in Chinese manufacturing indicators and looming U.S. economic data, silver has struggled to gather upward momentum, weighed down by technical barriers and the strength of the U.S. dollar.
In November, China's economic signals painted a mixed picture. The official Manufacturing PMI inched higher to 50.3 from 50.2, and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 51.5 from 50.3, highlighting resilience in private manufacturing. However, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.0, suggesting stagnation in the services sector. Expectations for potential Chinese stimulus have done little to bolster silver prices, with the metal instead feeling the weight of a strong dollar environment.
Technically, silver dropped in the early Asian session on Monday, retreating from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of its latest downtrend and trading below the critical 100-day EMA $30.40, which now acts as immediate resistance. A failure to break this resistance could reinforce the consolidation range, with $29.00 serving as support and $31.50 as the upper bound.
US data and Fed commentary set to influence Silver outlook
Adding to the economic outlook are key U.S. economic events this week. ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 47.7, pointing to contraction, while the JOLTS Job Openings report is expected to show 7.49 million vacancies, hinting at labor market resilience. Midweek, the ADP Non-Farm Employment report is projected to decline to 166,000 from 233,000, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday likely to influence sentiment. Friday’s non-farm payroll report, estimated at 202,000, and an anticipated uptick in unemployment to 4.2% could further shape silver’s trajectory. For now, investors will closely watch if upcoming U.S. data and Fed commentary can provide a decisive catalyst for a breakout or a deeper retracement in the weeks ahead.
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