WTI crude oil price holds near $61 as U.S.-China trade talks boost sentiment
WTI crude oil steadies near $61 amid trade optimism and supply uncertainty from OPEC+ and sanctions
WTI crude oil futures traded near $60.85 per barrel on Friday, extending gains from the previous session as markets responded positively to signs of de-escalation in global trade tensions. Prices had surged nearly 4% on Thursday and remain on course for a weekly advance, supported by optimism surrounding this weekend’s high-level talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in what is being seen as a pivotal moment in efforts to revive global trade flows. This comes just days after the U.S. and U.K. finalized a bilateral trade agreement, further buoying market sentiment. The deal includes tariff reductions on both sides, including a cut in British tariffs on U.S. imports from 5.1% to 1.8%, and concessions from Washington on British auto exports. These developments have helped improve the crude oil demand outlook, particularly in the face of recent economic uncertainty.
USOIL price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025) Source: TradingView.
OPEC+ supply plans and Iran-related sanctions pose risks
While sentiment around demand is improving, supply-side developments are tempering the bullish momentum. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) signaled plans to increase output, adding pressure on global prices. However, April production data revealed that total OPEC output actually declined slightly due to disruptions in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq—partially offsetting the production boost narrative.
Adding to the complexity, new U.S. sanctions targeting two smaller Chinese refiners accused of buying Iranian crude have disrupted supply chains. Reports suggest that these firms have resorted to relabeling products, indicating an escalation in U.S. pressure against Tehran. The sanctions are seen as part of Washington’s broader strategy to push Iran back to the negotiating table over its nuclear program, but they also introduce a fresh layer of supply risk.
WTI crude outlook: Trade diplomacy and OPEC signals in focus
The WTI crude oil price today reflects cautious optimism, with bulls holding ground above the $59.50–$60 range. A successful outcome from U.S.-China discussions could reinforce sentiment and push prices toward the next resistance zone near $61.50. On the downside, any signs of breakdown in negotiations or aggressive OPEC+ output could bring $58 back into play.
As previously discussed, WTI’s ability to sustain gains above the $60 threshold depends heavily on diplomatic progress and actual production shifts. With both factors in flux, volatility may remain elevated in the near term.
