WTI crude oil price breaks above $62.90 fueled by easing trade tensions and a trendline breakout
WTI crude oil surges above $62.90, breaking key resistance as bulls eye $64.80 next
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose to $62.96 on Monday, climbing more than 1.8% intraday and notching a two-week-high. The move extends a sharp rally from last week’s lows near $56.50, driven by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
After both countries agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback over the weekend, optimism surged across energy markets, supporting demand expectations and helping WTI break out from a multi-week descending trendline.
The rally was confirmed by a strong bullish candle on the 4-hour chart that cleared resistance near $61.20 and pushed price action into the $63 zone. The 20 EMA ($60.30) and 100 EMA ($60.58) have now flipped to support, while price tests the 200 EMA at $62.41. A 4-hour close above this level would set the stage for a move toward the $64.80 resistance zone, last seen in late April.
USOIL price dynamics (April 2025 - May 2025) Source: TradingView.
Technical structure aligns with bullish reversal
Momentum indicators back the rally’s strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart surged to 73.89, entering overbought territory but still lacking divergence. Bollinger Bands are widening, with price hugging the upper band—often a signal of sustained breakout strength. The LuxAlgo trendline breakout and a reversal of the lower high pattern further confirm the shift in sentiment.
That said, OPEC+ supply risks remain. The group reaffirmed plans to raise production in the coming months, while parallel U.S.-Iran nuclear talks raise prospects of sanctions easing—potentially expanding supply. Still, softening recession fears and the Fed’s hawkish pause have helped underpin the U.S. dollar and, by extension, oil prices.
Outlook: Eyes on $64.80–$67.00 with support at $60.50
If WTI crude oil holds above $62.50 on a daily close, the next upside test lies between $64.00 and $64.80. Further momentum could expose $66.30–$67.00 as extended targets. On the downside, a pullback to $60.50 or $61.20 may attract renewed buyer interest. Traders will closely monitor U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks later this week for macroeconomic cues.
As discussed in previous coverage, the $56.45–$57.00 range was identified as a key structural base. The breakout from this support, alongside easing trade friction and improved technical posture, now reaffirms a medium-term bullish bias unless WTI falls back below $60.
