Gold price prediction: metal consolidates for six days below 200 EMA resistance
Consolidation near $2,666 hints at gold's breakout potential
Gold price rally, which has already surged 40% since 2022, appears poised to continue its upward trajectory, with analysts forecasting a potential rise to $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2025. This bullish outlook is reinforced by resilient central bank demand, a shift in monetary policy expectations, and technical price action showing steady consolidation near key resistance levels.
Over the past six days, gold has remained in a narrow range between $2,666 and $2,620, with intraday movements constrained within a slightly upward-tilted channel. The 200 EMA on the 4-hour chart currently caps the price at $2,666, acting as a near-term resistance. Meanwhile, $2,600 offers lower-term support, with $2,700 emerging as a psychological resistance level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, reflecting a market in equilibrium, awaiting a decisive breakout.
Gold prices defy traditional negative correlation
Central bank demand has been a critical pillar of gold’s strength. Lina Thomas, a commodities' strategist at Goldman Sachs, highlights a shift that began in 2022 when Western sanctions froze Russia’s central bank assets. This led central banks globally to diversify reserves into gold, an asset immune to such measures. “They began to move away from the dollar and into an asset no one can freeze – and that is gold,” she explained.
This robust central bank buying has offset the traditional negative correlation between gold and rising interest rates. As rates climbed, gold prices defied expectations, rising sharply. With the Federal Reserve expected to ease monetary policy, investor demand is returning alongside sustained central bank accumulation.
Looking ahead, gold’s bullish momentum hinges on maintaining support above $2,600 while overcoming resistance at $2,666 and $2,700. With a supportive macroeconomic backdrop and solid technical foundations, the stage seems set for gold to extend its rally above its recent consolidation.
Gold rally faces headwinds from a stronger dollar and stabilising labour market data. This led to price dips to $2,633 amid long-term bullish outlook.
