Nvidia stock nears breakout as AI push lifts stock 50% from April low
Nvidia introduced the NVLink Fusion platform, which allows GPUs to work seamlessly with CPUs from other manufacturers
As of May 20, Nvidia stock is trading at $135.57, up 0.13% in the past 24 hours. The stock has shown remarkable strength since rebounding from its April lows, gaining more than 50% in the last six weeks.
Highlights
• Nvidia has introduced the Lepton AI platform and NVLink Fusion to expand its dominance in the AI infrastructure space.
• The strategic moves are seen as bullish catalysts for the stock, reinforcing the company’s leadership in the AI market.
• Nvidia is testing key resistance at $135 with support at $115, and a breakout could trigger a move toward the $150 level.
From a technical standpoint, NVDA has successfully reclaimed its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a widely followed long-term indicator that signals bullish momentum when crossed from below. The current price action shows the stock consolidating just below the key resistance zone at $135. This level has previously acted as both support and resistance, and a breakout above it would be a notable bullish confirmation.
Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are trending upwards but not yet in overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for further upside. The 50-day moving average sits around the $115 level, now acting as interim support. This level coincides with the breakout point from a recent falling wedge pattern that was resolved to the upside—another bullish signal. Below $115, the next significant support lies at $96, which marked the April low and the base of the last consolidation range.
NVDA stock price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025). Source: TradingView
Volume patterns have also been supportive of the current rally. There has been a steady increase in buying volume on up days, indicating institutional participation. If this trend continues, it will further strengthen the case for a move above the $135 mark.
AI product ecosystem and strategic pivots fuel investor optimism
Nvidia has cemented its role as the cornerstone of the AI revolution, and recent announcements have only added fuel to investor enthusiasm. At the recent Computex technology conference, the company unveiled a range of innovations aimed at expanding its influence across the AI and data center markets. Most notably, Nvidia introduced the NVLink Fusion platform, which allows Nvidia GPUs to work seamlessly with CPUs and AI accelerators from other manufacturers. This move marks a significant step toward greater interoperability and flexibility, a key concern for enterprise customers building complex AI systems.
Furthermore, Nvidia launched the DGX Cloud Lepton, an AI software marketplace designed to connect software developers with Nvidia’s vast ecosystem of GPUs. This initiative aims to lower the barrier to entry for smaller players while deepening the company's integration across AI workflows. Such platform-level innovations are likely to drive long-term recurring revenue, a key metric investors use to value tech companies with deep ecosystem moats.
The broader macroeconomic environment also appears supportive. The Nasdaq-100 index, heavily weighted toward tech and semiconductor firms, has been on an upward trajectory amid declining inflation expectations and a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. With AI spending projected to continue growing across sectors from healthcare to finance, Nvidia stands to benefit as a key enabler of this transformation.
Breakout above $135 could target $150 in the near term
Given the strong technical setup and the wave of bullish sentiment from Nvidia's recent announcements, the stock looks poised to test and potentially break through the $135 resistance. A sustained move above this level would likely trigger additional buying, both from momentum traders and institutions seeking to increase their AI exposure. The next major resistance level lies near $150, which would represent a roughly 10% gain from current prices and bring the stock closer to retesting its all-time highs.
On the downside, if Nvidia fails to break out above $135 and reverses lower, the $115 support level will be critical. A break below that could lead to a deeper pullback toward $96, erasing much of the recent gains. However, barring a significant macroeconomic shock or a major earnings disappointment, such a move appears unlikely in the near term.
Nvidia faces challenges from U.S. export restrictions on AI chip sales to China, a key market for its products. Additionally, recent reductions in institutional holdings suggest cautious sentiment amid market uncertainty and profit-taking.
