Nvidia stock slips to $134 as new AI platform move meets resistance
Nvidia is pivoting toward platform-level growth by opening its AI server software ecosystem to third-party chips
As of May 21, Nvidia stock is trading at $134.38, down 0.9% over the past 24 hours. This level represents a key inflection point, as the stock recently broke out of a falling wedge pattern and surged above its 200-day moving average.
Highlights
• Nvidia is trading at $134.38, after a strong technical breakout above key moving averages.
• The company’s move to open its AI server platform to rivals signals a strategic shift toward software and ecosystem dominance.
• The remaining export restrictions to China and overbought technicals pose short-term risks.
This technical formation typically signals a reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment, and in Nvidia’s case, the breakout was confirmed by increasing trading volume, indicating renewed buying interest from institutional and retail investors alike. The stock’s next major resistance lies at $150, a psychologically important round number and a level that coincides with historical highs seen in late 2024.
Support on the downside is initially found at $130, which represents a short-term consolidation zone. Below this, stronger support resides near $115, a level that aligns with the 50-day moving average and the breakout zone from the wedge pattern. If Nvidia fails to hold this level, a drop toward the $96 range—its April low—is possible, although this remains a lower probability scenario barring unexpected macroeconomic shocks.
NVDA stock price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025). Source: TradingView.
Momentum indicators also reinforce the bullish technical setup. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending near 68, just below the overbought threshold of 70. While this indicates strength, it also raises the possibility of a short-term pullback or consolidation period as profit-taking emerges. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in bullish territory, with the MACD line well above the signal line, confirming the recent uptrend.
Market context: regulatory friction and global dynamics
Despite the strong technical backdrop, Nvidia faces multiple external challenges that may temper short-term gains. A key issue is the mounting regulatory pressure from the U.S. government, which has imposed stricter export controls on advanced AI chips to Chinese firms. Nvidia’s H20 chip, specifically designed for the Chinese market to circumvent prior restrictions, is now also facing limitations. Analysts estimate this could impact Nvidia’s revenues by up to $15 billion annually, representing a substantial dent in its China-based growth narrative.
Simultaneously, Nvidia is pivoting toward platform-level growth by opening its AI server software ecosystem to third-party chips, including those from AMD and Intel. This strategic shift aims to reduce Nvidia’s dependence on hardware margins and broaden its moat in the AI infrastructure space. While this move is expected to boost recurring revenue over the long term, it may take several quarters before tangible benefits reflect in the company’s financials.
Macroeconomic uncertainty also looms large. The broader market is navigating rising Treasury yields and a downgraded U.S. credit rating, both of which have contributed to volatility in technology shares. Additionally, market participants are closely watching inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals for guidance. In such an environment, high-beta stocks like Nvidia tend to exhibit amplified price swings, regardless of underlying fundamentals.
Potential to test $150 with interim pullback risk
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s stock has the potential to climb toward $150 over the next few weeks, assuming no material deterioration in macroeconomic or regulatory conditions. The technical breakout above the 200-day moving average, supported by strong volume and positive momentum indicators, favors the continuation of the uptrend.
However, the RSI near overbought territory suggests the possibility of a temporary pullback or sideways consolidation around $130 to $135 before the next leg higher. Investors should watch for a confirmed break above $140 on solid volume to indicate the resumption of upward momentum. Conversely, a failure to hold $130 could lead to a corrective move toward $115.
Nvidia introduced DGX Cloud Lepton, an AI software marketplace that connects developers to its GPU ecosystem, aiming to broaden accessibility and adoption. This platform strategy supports long-term recurring revenue growth by strengthening Nvidia’s role across the AI value chain.
