Gold price forecast: XAU/USD shows resilience ahead of November NFP data
NFP data may determine Gold's next price direction
Gold has experienced a challenging week given price dip to a low of $2,610 per ounce as rising US Treasury bond yields and mixed US jobs data weighed on investor sentiment. The metal briefly recovered in the late Asian session and also faced strong resistance at this level. This volatility highlights a key uncertainty in the market as traders await the release of the November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.
The initial sell-off in Gold came as US jobless claims data pointed to a slight improvement in the labour market, which contributed to a rise in US Treasury yields. Higher yields, which offer better returns on government bonds, often diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold. As a result, Gold retreated by almost 1% on Thursday, falling near $2,610, as investors pared down expectations that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming December meeting.
Gold price outlook faces critical resistance levels
Technically, Gold which had been trading in a bullish channel from a low of $2,600 broke below this support level, dropping further into Friday’s early Asian session. However, the late-session recovery, which saw Gold rebound sharply and move back towards $2,650, suggests some resilience in the market. Notably, the RSI indicator moved from oversold levels to above 50, signaling a potential shift in momentum if Gold can overcome the near-term resistance at $2,650.
Gold price dynamics (November-December 2024). Source: TradingView
Looking ahead, the outlook for Gold remains closely tied to upcoming economic data, particularly the NFP report. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could further boost Treasury yields, adding downward pressure on Gold. On the other hand, a weaker report could reignite expectations of a more dovish Fed, which would be supportive of the yellow metal. For now, key price levels to watch are $2,600 for support and $2,650 for resistance. Should Gold break through the latter, the next target would be $2,700.
Analysts forecast Gold to rise to $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2025. This bullish outlook is reinforced by resilient central bank demand and a shift in monetary policy expectations.
