Natural gas price outlook: Consolidation near $3.30 awaits breakout or breakdown
Natural gas price action consolidates near $3.30
Natural gas futures are currently trading at $3.27 per MMBtu, showing a slight intraday decline of 0.76%. After failing to sustain bullish momentum, natural gas price action remains stuck between critical resistance and support zones, facing mixed signals on shorter timeframes. As the market approaches a key juncture, traders are closely watching for any decisive breakout or breakdown.
Highlights
- Natural gas consolidates near $3.30 after testing key resistance at $3.33.
- Short-term momentum indicators show neutral-to-bearish signals, with risks to the downside.
- A breakout above $3.33 or a breakdown below $3.26 could determine the next directional move.
On the 4-hour and 30-minute charts, natural gas is caught within a symmetrical triangle, forming a narrowing price range between ascending support and descending resistance. The price briefly tested the upper boundary at $3.31–$3.33, but failed to hold gains, signaling that overhead supply pressure remains intact. Price is now testing the lower end of the range, near $3.26, while the 30-minute MACD shows a slight bullish crossover, indicating weak momentum. However, the RSI remains neutral at around 50, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction.
Natural gas price dynamics (April 2025 - May 2025) Source: TradingView.
Bollinger Bands and EMAs suggest volatility ahead
The narrowing Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart suggest that a breakout or breakdown is imminent. Natural gas is currently testing the lower band near $3.20, and the price is situated between the 20 EMA ($3.31) and the 200 EMA ($3.27), which have capped any potential upside. A move back above $3.33 could open the door for a retest of the $3.41–$3.46 resistance zone, but failure to hold the $3.26 level would shift the focus to support levels at $3.14 and $3.00.
Outlook for natural gas price
For the near-term outlook, natural gas futures face key levels of support and resistance. A break above $3.33 could trigger further bullish momentum, targeting the $3.41–$3.46 zone. However, if prices fall below $3.26, downside risk remains in play, with $3.14 and $3.00 becoming possible targets. Traders should keep an eye on the tightening range between $3.26 and $3.33 for a potential breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions.
As previously discussed, the price of natural gas remains in a critical technical zone. The current consolidation between key trendlines suggests that any breakout above $3.33 could lead to further gains, while a breakdown below $3.26 could pave the way for renewed selling pressure
