Nvidia stock gains 3.2% ahead of earnings as traders eye $137.50 breakout
Fueling the optimism is Nvidia’s strategic expansion into alternative markets
As of May 28, Nvidia stock is trading at $135.50, up 3.2% in the past 24 hours. This strong pre-earnings rally reflects heightened investor optimism ahead of the company’s fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, scheduled for release after today’s market close.
Highlights
- NVDA is trading at $135.50, up 3.2% ahead of its Q1 earnings, with strong technical support from moving averages and bullish momentum indicators.
- Key resistance lies at $137.50, with potential upside toward $145 if earnings and guidance exceed expectations.
- Risks remain from U.S. export controls and any cautious forward outlook.
Support is found near $128.00, a level tested several times during May and one that aligns with key Fibonacci retracement zones. The 50-day moving average stands at $131.20, while the 200-day moving average is well below at $122.40. Both indicators support the prevailing uptrend and suggest strong underlying demand for the stock.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers around 68, slightly below the overbought threshold. This signals that while momentum is positive, some caution is warranted. A short-term pullback or sideways movement would be technically healthy following the recent surge, particularly if earnings come in mixed or if forward guidance disappoints.
NVDA stock price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025). Source: TradingView.
Additionally, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is trending above 25, indicating a strong trend in place, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) continues to show a bullish crossover with widening histogram bars—both signs of upward momentum still intact. Volume has also increased over the last three sessions, signaling strong accumulation ahead of earnings. If this volume surge continues post-earnings, it could confirm a breakout and lead to accelerated gains. However, traders should watch for any bearish divergence on the RSI or MACD as potential early warnings of trend exhaustion.
Wall Street bets on AI growth, but export policy casts shadow
Market sentiment heading into Nvidia’s earnings is largely bullish. Analysts project Q1 revenue of approximately $43.3 billion, up 66% year-over-year, with expected earnings per share around $0.88. These figures, if met, would confirm Nvidia’s continued dominance in the AI and data center space, driven by insatiable demand for its advanced GPU chips used in training large language models and powering data-intensive enterprise workloads.
Fueling the optimism is Nvidia’s strategic expansion into alternative markets. In particular, its recent agreement with Saudi Arabia’s AI company HUMAIN for the supply of 18,000 high-performance GPUs has drawn attention. This deal not only diversifies Nvidia’s customer base but also helps offset potential revenue losses stemming from U.S. export restrictions to China. These restrictions, particularly on the H20 chip model, have been a source of concern for investors, as they could impact Nvidia’s addressable market and inventory levels.
The broader equity markets have also contributed to Nvidia’s recent strength. Tech stocks have rallied on expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, along with stronger-than-expected corporate earnings across the sector. This risk-on environment has boosted demand for high-beta stocks like Nvidia.
Bullish breakout or corrective dip depending on earnings tone
In the near term, Nvidia’s price action will hinge on today’s earnings announcement. A strong beat on both revenue and EPS, combined with upbeat forward guidance, could trigger a breakout above the $137.50 resistance. In such a scenario, the stock may rally toward the $145.00–$148.00 zone in the coming sessions, supported by renewed institutional buying and momentum traders piling in.
Conversely, if Nvidia meets but does not significantly exceed expectations—or worse, issues cautious forward guidance due to export limitations or slowing data center orders—a pullback is likely. In this case, the stock could decline toward the $131.20 50-day moving average, with a deeper correction down to $128.00 not out of the question.
Wall Street expects a strong Q1 report from Nvidia, with projected revenue of $43.3 billion, up 66% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $0.88, a 44% increase. These forecasts are fueled by soaring demand for Nvidia’s AI GPUs in cloud and hyperscale data centers.
