Should I buy Nvidia?
Nvidia earnings preview: stock rallies 24% ahead of key Q1 report
Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock is under the spotlight this week as the AI chip leader prepares to release its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday.
The stock has soared 24% over the past month, driven by bullish sentiment around AI demand and broader tech market strength. Nvidia has now surpassed Apple in market capitalization, signaling investor confidence ahead of a critical earnings report.
Analysts expect earnings of 88 cents per share on revenue of $43.2 billion, while the company has guided for gross margins of 71%, down from 73.5% in Q4. Despite its momentum, the stock faces resistance near $150 and support around $90, levels that may be tested post-report.
China export curbs pressure outlook for H20 chips
Nvidia continues to face regulatory headwinds due to U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chips, including its China-specific H20 model. The company has reportedly downgraded the H20 chip to comply with the rules, reducing features such as memory. Analysts expect limited near-term sales recovery, as the company may not secure a license to resume full exports.
Analyst Dmytro Kharkov says:
"Nvidia remains a strong long-term buy due to its dominant position in AI and data center chips, but its current valuation is stretched after significant gains. Investors should consider waiting for a pullback or averaging in to manage risk".
CEO Jensen Huang recently described U.S. curbs as a “failure,” noting Nvidia’s China market share fell from 95% to 50% in four years. Still, Nvidia plans to release a modified H20 in July and is expanding partnerships with Marvell and Qualcomm to maintain its central role in AI data centers.
U.S. production, Blackwell chips, and AI dominance drive growth
Despite tariff volatility, Nvidia is pressing forward with U.S.-based production, commissioning over a million square feet of manufacturing for its Blackwell chips and AI systems. Blackwell has become Nvidia’s fastest-growing segment, contributing to its dominant position in AI infrastructure. The firm recently replaced Intel in the Dow Jones and continues to outperform major indices, with institutional investors owning 40% of shares.
Analysts remain bullish on long-term growth, citing Nvidia’s leadership in AI GPUs, CUDA ecosystem, and custom enterprise solutions. However, with earnings looming, investors are advised to watch for key technical levels and guidance updates amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Recently we wrote that NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported strong financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, ended April 27, 2025, with revenue reaching $44.1 billion, marking a 12% increase from the previous quarter and a 69% year-over-year jump.
