Tesla stock soars 5.7% as robotaxi hype lifts price despite sales slump
In China, Tesla's largest non-U.S. market, insurance registrations dropped 34% week-over-week in early June
As of June 11, Tesla stock is trading at $326.09, up 5.7% over the past 24 hours.
This surge was driven by growing optimism around the company’s autonomous driving technology and the much-anticipated robotaxi rollout.
Highlights
- Tesla stock rose 5.7% following excitement over its autonomous robotaxi service set to launch in Austin.
- Technical resistance at $365 and declining global sales pose major hurdles to sustained gains.
- Investors remain cautious as broader EV demand softens and political noise continues to weigh on sentiment.
From a technical perspective, Tesla is exhibiting a mixed pattern. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain above the current price level, indicating that the broader trend is still bearish. However, the strong rally over the past few sessions has brought the stock closer to key resistance zones. The first significant resistance level lies around $365, a former support zone that turned into a ceiling during previous failed breakout attempts in 2024 and early 2025. A successful close above $365 on volume would be required to shift the current medium-term bias to bullish.
Support is currently found at $289, a level where the stock consolidated earlier this year before breaking down in March. Should bearish pressure return, a move below $289 would expose Tesla to further downside, with $265 being the next critical support zone. If that level fails, Tesla could retrace toward $215, which is consistent with longer-term Fibonacci retracement targets.
TSLA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are showing early signs of bullish crossover, but the trend strength is not yet convincing. Volume increased significantly on June 10, which is a positive short-term signal. However, sustainability will depend on follow-through buying in the next few sessions. Overall, Tesla’s technical posture remains cautiously neutral to bullish in the short term, pending confirmation from price action.
Market context: robotaxi optimism vs. falling global sales
The rally in Tesla’s share price is being largely driven by excitement over autonomous vehicle development. A recent video shared by Tesla showed a fully autonomous Model Y navigating the streets of Austin, Texas without a driver behind the wheel. This prompted speculation that the company is preparing to launch its robotaxi service sooner than expected, with reports suggesting Tesla could begin operations with a fleet of 10 vehicles this summer and scale up to 1,000 units in Austin over the coming months.
While this narrative is energizing bulls, it exists in contrast to sobering data on Tesla’s core vehicle sales. In China, Tesla's largest non-U.S. market, insurance registrations dropped 34% week-over-week in early June. Year-over-year sales for May were down more than 22%, and overall sales for the first five months of 2025 have declined by 8% compared to the same period in 2024. Europe and the U.S. are seeing similar trends, with the company's sales momentum slowing due to competitive pressures, declining EV demand, and reputational challenges tied to Musk's political activity and recent interactions with President Donald Trump.
Adding to this context, Baird recently downgraded Tesla from "Outperform" to "Neutral", citing overly optimistic sentiment around the robotaxi launch, and noting that the impact of AI and full self-driving has likely been priced in. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has continued reducing its Tesla exposure, signaling waning institutional conviction in the near-term outlook.
Range-bound unless breakout confirms above $365
Looking ahead, Tesla’s share price is likely to remain range-bound between $289 and $365 in the short term. A confirmed breakout above $365 on strong volume could open the door for a rally toward $430, which aligns with prior resistance levels from late 2023. Conversely, failure to hold current gains may result in a retracement back toward the $289 support. Should macro sentiment deteriorate or sales disappoint further, a test of $265 or even $215 remains a risk.
Investors should watch closely for news related to the official robotaxi launch timeline, updates to Tesla’s full self-driving software, and any developments from China’s EV market. Additionally, upcoming U.S. CPI data could influence broader risk appetite and affect Tesla indirectly. For now, Tesla’s story remains one of potential innovation battling against operational and reputational headwinds.
The broader market backdrop remains favorable, with the Nasdaq near record highs and strong investor interest in AI boosting sentiment for tech-aligned firms like Tesla. Still, intensifying competition from Chinese and European EV makers could weigh on Tesla’s margins in the latter half of 2025.
