Nikkei 225 eyes breakout as index price climbs toward key resistance near 38,850
Nikkei 225 consolidates just below resistance as breakout above 38,850 could unlock new highs
The Nikkei 225 is inching closer to a critical breakout level as bullish momentum persists across multiple timeframes. As of June 11, the index is trading near 38,400, bolstered by sustained strength above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 36,728.
Key highlights
- Nikkei 225 trades around 38,400, holding above 0.618 Fib level as 38,823 becomes next resistance
- EMA clusters on 4H and 30-min charts flipped to support, with RSI and MACD showing bullish bias
- Breakout above 38,850 could trigger retest of 40,400 while downside risk stays limited above 37,200
Market structure continues to favor the upside, with the 0.786 retracement at 38,823 emerging as the next major resistance that could unlock a path toward the all-time high zone near 40,400.
Volume patterns and moving averages suggest that bullish control remains intact despite short-term consolidation. Price action has successfully reclaimed and respected a key descending trendline broken earlier this year. The formation now resembles a rounded bottom, with horizontal resistance at 38,600–38,850 acting as a ceiling that traders are closely watching.
Technical setup points to continued upside momentum
On the daily chart, the Nikkei 225 remains structurally strong. Price is consolidating just below the 38,850 level, a historically significant band that previously served as resistance and mid-range support. The pattern resembles a bullish continuation structure, with the 4-hour Bollinger Bands expanding and price riding the upper band, which is a classic indication of trend acceleration.
Nikkei 225 price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
Lower timeframe indicators confirm the bullish momentum. RSI on the 30-minute chart remains above 60 without bearish divergence, and MACD continues to climb with rising histogram bars. A clean invalidation of this structure would require a break below 37,200, which currently marks the base of the ascending channel that has guided the recent rally.
Fibonacci and trend confluence fuel breakout optimism
Weekly charts underline a firm foothold above the 0.618 retracement zone, reinforcing the broader uptrend. With price pressing against the 0.786 retracement at 38,823, traders are positioning for a decisive breakout. If bulls succeed in closing above 38,850 with volume, it could pave the way toward 39,800–40,400. Meanwhile, failure to clear this band may result in a mild pullback to the 37,700–38,000 zone, where key moving averages and demand support align.
In prior coverage, we highlighted the Nikkei 225’s breakout above the falling wedge and EMA clusters. The index has since extended its gains and now nears a pivotal resistance zone. As bullish indicators strengthen, the next move could define whether the Nikkei challenges its all-time highs or pauses for consolidation.
