Tesla stock trades at $329 as Model S and X upgrades fail to lift bearish outlook
Tesla’s challenges are particularly pronounced in China, a critical market for EV growth
As of June 17, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shows signs of slight upward momentum, gaining 1.2% in the latest session to reach $329.13.
However, this modest rise does little to reverse a broader bearish trajectory, with the stock still down 18% year-to-date.
Highlights
- Tesla shares gained 1.2% to $329.13, but remain down 18% year-to-date amid technical resistance and bearish momentum.
- New Model S and X upgrades drew limited investor enthusiasm despite performance enhancements and higher prices.
- Intensifying competition in China and weak vehicle registrations weigh heavily on near-term prospects.
The recent technical setup remains challenging, as Tesla trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day MA is currently at $340.50, while the 200-day MA stands at $362.80. These levels are acting as significant resistance points, capping potential rallies.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 42, signaling that while Tesla is approaching oversold conditions, there remains room for further downward pressure before triggering a contrarian bounce. Trading volume has increased to 83.9 million shares, suggesting rising interest, though much of it appears to be driven by speculative and reactive trading rather than long-term accumulation.
TSLA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
Technically, the $320 price level is emerging as a key support threshold. This level has been tested multiple times over the past two weeks without a breakdown, signaling short-term resilience. However, if this support is breached, downside momentum could accelerate toward the psychological $300 mark. On the upside, Tesla faces immediate resistance at $340, aligned with the 50-day MA, and a more robust ceiling at $362.80, where the 200-day MA looms. The inability of the stock to hold gains above these averages continues to underscore a weak technical posture.
Market context: new EV models amid intensifying global competition
In terms of corporate developments, Tesla has launched refreshed versions of its premium EVs — the Model S and Model X. These new versions boast enhanced aerodynamics, upgraded adaptive suspension systems, and improved cabin noise insulation. Tesla claims that the Model S now offers a range of up to 410 miles on a single charge. These upgrades come at a cost, with base prices increased by $5,000. The Model S now starts at $84,990 and the Model X at $89,990. Despite these enhancements, the market reaction was subdued, with TSLA gaining just 1% post-announcement, indicating limited investor enthusiasm.
Tesla’s challenges are particularly pronounced in China, a critical market for EV growth. Local competition is heating up, especially from Xiaomi, which is preparing to launch its YU7 SUV in late June — a direct competitor to Tesla’s best-selling Model Y. Recent data shows Tesla's vehicle registrations in China dropped nearly 8% year-over-year for the first five months of 2025. More alarmingly, May saw a 30% plunge in Tesla's registrations compared to the same month in 2024. These numbers illustrate the mounting competitive pressure and suggest that Tesla's dominance in China is slipping.
Tesla’s global position is also affected by broader industry trends, including slowing EV adoption rates in Europe and the U.S., as well as reduced consumer incentives. Combined with operational pressures such as raw material costs and factory optimization, Tesla is navigating increasingly turbulent waters.
Risk skewed to downside barring a reversal catalyst
Given the confluence of technical weakness and challenging market fundamentals, Tesla’s near-term price outlook remains bearish. If the $320 support fails to hold, investors could see a rapid drop toward $300, where the next key support is likely to emerge. A move below that could trigger further selling and even a test of the $280 region, particularly if June delivery numbers disappoint or if competition in China accelerates.
Alternatively, if Tesla manages to reclaim and sustain levels above the $340 resistance, the next target would be the 200-day MA near $362.80. However, such a move would require not only positive technical momentum but also stronger macroeconomic sentiment or upbeat company-specific news — such as record deliveries or major new contracts.
Tesla's European sales have declined each month since January 2025, with a steep 49% year-over-year drop in April. In Germany, demand has weakened significantly amid rising EV competition from local automakers and stricter regulatory pressures.
