Tesla stock drops below $317 amid 21% Q2 delivery slump warning
Tesla’s sharp decline follows a warning from Wells Fargo, which projects a drop in second-quarter deliveries
As of June 18, Tesla stock is trading at $316.28, down 3.9% in the past 24 hours.
The recent slide reflects a growing chorus of skepticism surrounding the electric vehicle (EV) giant’s near-term prospects.
Highlights
- Tesla stock declined 3.9% following a warning from Wells Fargo about a 21% drop in Q2 deliveries.
- Analysts cited falling margins, declining EV credit revenue, and growing pressure on core auto fundamentals.
- The upcoming June 22 robotaxi event may offer a temporary boost, but downside risks remain elevated.
Technical indicators are flashing caution, and while upcoming product announcements could temporarily lift sentiment, analysts remain split on the longer-term outlook.
Tesla’s current trading level around $316 places it below key moving averages, notably the 50-day moving average at approximately $330. This breach signals a loss of near-term momentum and could pave the way for deeper technical corrections.
The stock tested an intraday low of $312, reinforcing a fragile support structure in the low $310s. Momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are weakening, with a recent RSI trendline break suggesting bearish dominance. Volume also surged on the latest down move, indicating strong conviction among sellers. From a chart pattern perspective, TSLA appears to be completing a descending triangle formation, with lower highs and steady lows—a setup often resolved with a breakdown.
TSLA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
If the $310–312 area fails to hold, next support rests at the $290–285 band, with stronger technical backing near $220. Further down, a bearish channel from early 2023 implies a potential decline to $170 in an extended risk-off scenario. Resistance lies near the $330–340 area, which previously acted as a pivot zone. A move above this range would be needed to suggest a reversal of the current downtrend.
Weak deliveries and analyst downgrades pressure sentiment
Tesla’s sharp decline follows a critical warning from Wells Fargo, which projects a substantial drop in second-quarter deliveries. According to their data, Q2 deliveries are trending down 21% year-over-year, with Europe’s volume off by a steep 42%, China down 22%, and North America showing a 13% decline. This underwhelming performance raises alarm bells, especially since Q1 already marked Tesla’s first year-over-year delivery drop since the pandemic.
Wells Fargo has reiterated its underweight rating and slashed its price target to $120, citing weakening auto fundamentals, increased reliance on financing incentives that erode margins, and declining EV credit revenue. Their analysis suggests that even the promise of autonomous vehicles and future growth stories like robotaxis may not offset short-term delivery and profit headwinds. They also question Tesla’s ability to defend its premium valuation—currently hovering near a 96x P/E ratio—especially when peers in the auto and tech space trade closer to 25x earnings.
Other analysts share the concern. Business Insider outlines five key risks: ongoing delivery delays, margin compression, uncertainty surrounding a rumored $30,000 EV, unresolved regulatory hurdles for robotaxis, and overall valuation froth. However, the bulls remain vocal. Piper Sandler maintains a price target of $400, expecting the robotaxi announcement to serve as a catalyst. CFRA sees fair value at $320, and Morgan Stanley continues to argue for Tesla’s leadership in AI and software-driven mobility.
Bearish bias unless Q2 surprises
Looking ahead, Tesla’s stock trajectory will depend heavily on Q2 results and the reception of its highly anticipated robotaxi reveal, scheduled for June 22 in Austin. A strong product narrative or guidance beat could stabilize the stock or even ignite a rally toward $360–380, in line with optimistic scenarios. A break above $340 would be the first technical sign of such a shift.
The base case, however, suggests further downside. If delivery weakness persists and Q2 earnings disappoint, TSLA could slide to $285 or lower, testing the $220–208 zone by mid-summer. Should macro conditions worsen or investor confidence erode further, a return to $170 remains possible.
Tesla unveiled upgraded versions of its Model S and Model X, featuring improved aerodynamics, suspension, and cabin insulation, along with extended range and a $5,000 price hike. Despite the enhancements, TSLA rose only 1%, signaling muted investor response.
