Nvidia stock dips to $144 as China risks and chip bill stall post-earnings rally
A U.S.Senate proposal aims to expand semiconductor tax credits from 25% to 30%
As of June 18, Nvidia stock is trading at $144.12, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
This follows a strong run in the prior weeks, boosted by AI-driven investor sentiment and bullish analyst coverage.
Highlights
- Nvidia is consolidating around $144, with strong support at $140 and resistance near $147.
- Technical indicators are mixed, but a bullish flag pattern suggests potential for an upside breakout.
- Broader AI demand supports long-term growth, though export risks and valuation concerns pose short-term challenges.
Nvidia’s (NVDA) current price sits just above the 100-day moving average of $140 and comfortably above the 200-day average near $133. These longer-term indicators suggest that the uptrend remains structurally intact. Shorter-term moving averages, such as the 20-day ($143) and 50-day ($142–143), act as immediate resistance. The inability to close above $145 in recent sessions points to a short-term ceiling near $146–147, which aligns with historical resistance and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Oscillators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 43, suggesting neutral-to-slightly-bearish momentum. The MACD has flattened, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) signals weakening trend strength. Despite this, NVDA is forming a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart, indicative of potential breakout if it can pierce through the $146 barrier. Support remains firm in the $140–143 zone, and a breakdown below $140 could expose the stock to $135 or even $130.
NVDA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
Volume patterns suggest accumulation, as recent pullbacks have occurred on lighter volume compared to upswings, a positive sign for bulls. Additionally, the stock has not breached its upward-sloping trendline from the March lows, reinforcing the argument that NVDA is building energy for a renewed upward push rather than reversing. Traders should closely monitor a decisive break above $147 or below $140 for directional confirmation.
Chip sentiment lifts, but macro and geopolitical risks persist
On the macro front, chipmakers have garnered political attention. A U.S. Senate proposal aims to expand semiconductor tax credits from 25% to 30%. While Nvidia itself may not directly benefit from the fab-focused credit structure, the sentiment remains broadly positive for the industry. However, renewed tension around export restrictions to China continues to weigh. In late May, Nvidia stock declined despite strong earnings, in part due to concerns over limited AI chip sales to Chinese markets.
Still, the broader AI infrastructure build-out has cemented Nvidia’s dominant role in this secular trend. Blackwell, the firm’s next-generation GPU architecture, is expected to underpin its datacenter and AI growth in the second half of 2025. Analyst sentiment reflects this strength: Barclays, Piper Sandler, and Oppenheimer maintain outperform ratings, citing Nvidia's unique hardware-software integration in the AI stack.
Yet some voices urge caution. A recent Business Insider analysis listed five headwinds for AI stocks, including stretched valuations, high dependency on energy infrastructure, and potential Fed-driven liquidity tightening. Notably, Nvidia’s data center growth requires vast energy and physical server capacity, posing bottlenecks as AI scales. A recent Barron’s article emphasized these risks, noting how increasing power consumption and land scarcity could act as speed bumps for Nvidia’s future expansion.
Rangebound near-term, bullish mid-term potential
In the short term, Nvidia is likely to remain in a consolidation phase between $140 and $150. Should macro conditions stabilize and AI-related flows remain strong, NVDA could retest the $147 resistance, with a breakout paving the way to $155–160 by Q3.
The base case remains a $140–146 trading range. In an upside scenario, surpassing $147 with conviction targets $150–155. A more bullish follow-through, possibly catalyzed by macro tailwinds or stronger-than-expected earnings guidance, could take the stock to $160 by late summer. On the downside, any unfavorable developments—such as further export limitations or broad market corrections—could drive NVDA down to $135, with deeper support around $130.
Nvidia's leadership in AI GPUs positions it at the center of surging demand from companies expanding AI infrastructure. CEO Jensen Huang calls this shift a new industrial revolution, with analysts boosting earnings forecasts on expected global hardware growth.
