Tesla stock rebounds 1.8% as robotaxi launch rescheduled to June 22
Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory saw a notable 80% week-over-week rebound in registrations between June 9 and 15
As of June 19, Tesla stock is trading at $322.05, up 1.8% over the last 24 hours.
Intraday movements show a high of $329.22 and a low of $315.76, suggesting moderate volatility within a consolidating range.
Highlights
- Tesla is trading near its 50-day moving average at $322.05, showing technical indecision ahead of a major event.
- The robotaxi launch has been rescheduled to June 22, with potential to drive bullish momentum if successful.
- A breakout above $346 could lead to a rally, while failure may see the stock retest $320 support.
The stock is currently hovering around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a critical level often watched by traders for trend shifts. This SMA, presently near $322, has acted as a pivot over the past several sessions, reflecting indecision among market participants. A sustained move above this level would suggest improving short-term sentiment, while repeated rejections could reinforce bearish control. This zone also intersects with a previous consolidation range from early May, adding to its technical significance.
Key support levels remain intact at $335, $336.50, and $338, based on recent chart patterns. These levels have repeatedly cushioned pullbacks since early June. On the upside, Tesla faces firm resistance in the $342.50 to $346 zone, which also coincides with the 200-day SMA. A confirmed breakout above $346 would signal a reversal into bullish territory, potentially attracting momentum traders.
TSLA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
Technical indicators remain neutral to slightly bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 52, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. The Average Directional Index (ADX) hovers around 28, implying the presence of a nascent trend but lacking strong conviction. Meanwhile, the Average True Range (ATR) at around $2.00 suggests that daily price movements are moderately volatile, giving traders both opportunity and risk.
Market context and fundamental drivers
Tesla’s current rebound is being shaped by a complex mix of operational updates, macroeconomic sentiment, and competitive dynamics. The company is preparing to temporarily halt production of its Model Y and Cybertruck at the Austin, Texas Gigafactory starting June 30. This will be the third production pause in 2025, and although framed as planned retooling, markets are wary of its impact on Q2 output.
China remains a key point of concern and opportunity. Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory saw a notable 80% week-over-week rebound in registrations between June 9 and 15, boosting short-term optimism. However, year-to-date registrations are still down approximately 7%, and year-over-year figures are even more troubling at -17%. May deliveries in China fell nearly 30% compared to the same month in 2024, while the broader Chinese EV market rose 28% in the same period. This divergence highlights Tesla's competitive challenges, especially with new entrants like Xiaomi capturing market share through rapid SUV rollouts.
Meanwhile, anticipation is building around Tesla’s robotaxi launch, now scheduled for June 22. This event, long hyped by CEO Elon Musk, could serve as a major catalyst if it delivers tangible progress. The recent inclusion of Tesla as a licensed autonomous vehicle operator in Austin is a positive step, though the broader market remains skeptical of the scalability and regulatory pathway for full autonomy.
Price prediction and scenarios
In the short term, Tesla’s price action will be heavily influenced by the robotaxi reveal and follow-through on production expectations. If the June 22 event delivers meaningful progress and investors are impressed, TSLA could break through the $346 resistance and rally toward $360, with potential to extend gains toward $370 over the following weeks.
In a base-case scenario, the stock remains rangebound between $335 and $346, reflecting current technical and fundamental ambiguity. Markets will await Tesla’s Q2 delivery report, expected in early July, which may provide the next major directional cue.
Wells Fargo reiterated its underweight rating on Tesla and cut its price target to $120, citing margin pressures from financing incentives, weakening auto demand, and declining EV credit revenue. The firm also expressed skepticism about Tesla’s premium 96x P/E valuation, noting it is hard to justify amid short-term delivery and profit challenges.
