Nvidia stock tests all-time high after Barclays lifts target to $200 on AI chip demand
While export restrictions on AI chip sales to China continue to present a risk, recent earnings showed Nvidia's resilience
As of June 19, Nvidia stock is trading at $145.48, up 0.9% in the last 24 hours, consolidating just below its all-time high of $149.43 set earlier this year.
The price action remains bullish within a narrow range of $143 to $147.
Highlights
- Nvidia is trading near its all-time high of $149.43, supported by strong technical momentum and institutional buying.
- Barclays raised its price target to $200, citing continued demand for AI chips and the Blackwell GPU rollout.
- A breakout above $150 could trigger a rally toward $175–190 in the coming weeks.
Technical indicators show strong momentum, with the 50-day moving average currently near $138, acting as dynamic support. A recent bounce from that level confirms continued accumulation. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average is significantly lower, around $100, reflecting the stock’s long-term uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 65, indicating bullish momentum without approaching overbought territory. Volume analysis from May through June shows an increase in buying during pullbacks, supporting the thesis of institutional support at current levels. Immediate resistance stands at $149.43, with a breakout potentially propelling the stock toward the $153.13 mark, a 23-week Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) buy point. Should that level be breached, the next resistance band lies between $175 and $190, aligning with various analyst targets.
NVDA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
On the downside, support is clearly defined between $138 and $140. A drop below this zone could trigger technical selling, with the next key level around $132, where the price last consolidated in early May. As long as Nvidia holds above the 50-day moving average, the technical outlook remains favorable for bulls.
Market context and catalysts
Wall Street sentiment toward Nvidia continues to be overwhelmingly positive. Barclays recently raised its 12-month price target to $200, citing robust demand for AI-focused data center chips and the successful rollout of its new Blackwell GPU architecture. Similarly, Melius Research and Oppenheimer have issued bullish targets of $205 and $175, respectively. These upgrades have helped sustain investor enthusiasm despite Nvidia's slight underperformance relative to the S&P 500 in the past week.
The broader market rally in semiconductor and AI stocks has also lifted Nvidia, with companies like AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell seeing strong gains. This suggests sector-wide momentum rather than isolated stock movement. Additionally, US lawmakers are considering increasing the semiconductor investment tax credit from 25% to 30%, which would directly benefit Nvidia’s margins and capex spending.While export restrictions on AI chip sales to China continue to present a risk, recent earnings showed Nvidia's resilience, with the stock rallying despite soft guidance. CEO Jensen Huang’s ongoing global outreach, including partnerships to develop AI supercomputers in Europe and Asia, underscores the company’s efforts to diversify demand geographically.
Potential macroeconomic headwinds include tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, geopolitical instability in the Middle East, and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. However, these risks appear to be outweighed for now by Nvidia's dominant position in the AI infrastructure market and favorable legislative tailwinds in the U.S. and EU.
Price prediction and scenarios
Base case for the next three to six weeks suggests that Nvidia could break above the $149.50 resistance and test the $153–155 zone. In a bull case scenario, where AI adoption surprises to the upside or favorable tax legislation is passed, Nvidia could reach or exceed the $200 level, corresponding to a $5 trillion market cap as suggested by Barclays. Such a move would require sustained momentum and strong earnings in the upcoming quarter.
Conversely, if macro risks materialize—such as tighter export controls or a significant correction in tech—Nvidia could fall below its $138 support. A break of that level may prompt a pullback to $125–130, though this is not currently the base expectation.
U.S. lawmakers are proposing to expand semiconductor tax credits, boosting sentiment across the chip sector, though Nvidia may not benefit directly. However, ongoing concerns about export restrictions to China continue to pressure the stock, as seen in its late May decline despite strong earnings.
