Nikkei 225 index price holds above 38,480 as short-term pressure rises
Nikkei 225 index tests short-term support near 38,480 after rejecting from local highs around 38,880
The Nikkei 225 Index ended the June 19 session with signs of short-term exhaustion after its sharp rally from early June lows. While the index remains structurally bullish on the daily and 4-hour charts, price action is now encountering familiar resistance near 38,880, introducing near-term downside risk.
Key highlights
- Nikkei 225 pauses near 38,880 after rallying from a multi-week descending trendline
- Price returns to 38,480 support as RSI and MACD signal short-term weakening
- Long-term bullish trend remains intact unless index closes below 37,870
Intraday price has pulled back into the 38,480–38,510 support zone, which previously acted as a consolidation base. The 30-minute chart reveals weakening momentum, with RSI falling below 40 and MACD crossing into bearish territory. A breakdown below this band could trigger further declines toward 38,060 and 37,870, both of which represent key support zones across timeframes.
Japan 225 index price forecast (Source: TradingView)
On the daily timeframe, the Nikkei 225 remains above a reclaimed trendline near 38,000, but the price has stalled just under the red resistance zone that capped rallies in mid-2023. Without a high-volume breakout above 39,000, bulls may struggle to extend gains. The Donchian Channel baseline at 38,212 is being tested, while the narrowing Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart suggest reduced volatility ahead of a potential directional move.
Bullish trend intact despite compression signals
Despite short-term caution, broader indicators confirm that the index is still in a bullish posture. The Bull Market Support Band and rising EMAs remain well below price, and the BBP histogram holds a positive print of +276, though the slope is flattening. Fibonacci projections show major resistance near 39,200 and 40,549, while downside risks grow if the index breaks below 37,870.
In our prior Nikkei coverage, we highlighted the potential for a rally toward 39,000 once 38,000 was reclaimed. With the breakout now facing overhead pressure, the coming sessions will be key in determining whether bulls can extend momentum or face a broader pullback into July.
