Nvidia stock gains 0.9% as China chip risk caps AI-driven rally
Nvidia’s performance is shaped by a complex geopolitical and regulatory backdrop
As of June 20, Nvidia stock is trading at $145.48, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours.
This price places the stock near the top of its recent trading range, supported by ongoing investor confidence in Nvidia’s role at the forefront of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
Highlights
- Nvidia is trading near record highs, supported by strong AI-driven demand and bullish technical indicators.
- A breakout above $153 could trigger a move toward $165–$170, while support holds at $135. - U.S. export restrictions to China remain a key risk, potentially capping near-term upside.
From a technical standpoint, Nvidia’s short- and long-term trends remain decisively bullish. The 50-day moving average is currently around $135, while the 200-day moving average is closer to $120, both indicating a solid upward trend. The stock has consistently held above these key moving averages, with strong institutional buying noted on pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the upper neutral range, around 65, suggesting that while the stock is not yet overbought, momentum is approaching levels that have previously triggered consolidations. The current price action reflects consolidation just below the all-time high of $153, which now acts as near-term resistance.
Volume analysis also supports the bullish technical case. Recent trading sessions have seen consistent accumulation, especially after Nvidia's strong earnings report and guidance. Daily volumes have remained elevated, with a sharp uptick during breakout attempts above the $140–$145 range, suggesting active participation by large players. This pattern of volume-backed rallies followed by low-volume pullbacks is typical of strong uptrends. If Nvidia breaks through the $153 resistance with above-average volume, a new leg higher could begin toward the $165 level. Conversely, a drop below the $140 level may lead to a test of $135, the 50-day moving average and a key psychological support.
NVDA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
The broader technical structure also highlights the formation of a bullish continuation pattern. Over the past few weeks, Nvidia has been forming a tight consolidation range between $140 and $145, with narrowing volatility. This pennant-like pattern typically precedes a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend, which remains firmly upward. Should the pattern resolve to the upside, Nvidia could quickly target $155–$160 based on measured move projections. Failure to hold $135 on the downside would negate this setup, potentially dragging the stock toward the longer-term 200-day average near $120.
Regulatory overhangs and market shifts shape medium-term risks
Outside of chart dynamics, Nvidia’s performance is shaped by a complex geopolitical and regulatory backdrop. Recent developments concerning U.S. export restrictions have raised fresh challenges. The Trump administration’s latest policies curtail sales of high-performance AI chips like the H20 to China, effectively reducing Nvidia’s potential revenue from the region. While initial estimates pegged the potential impact at $15 billion, revised projections now indicate a more manageable $8 billion loss. Nevertheless, CEO Jensen Huang has publicly expressed concern that such restrictions could accelerate domestic innovation within China and erode Nvidia’s competitive edge in a strategically critical market.
Despite these headwinds, Nvidia’s fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Its Blackwell chip architecture is expected to drive the next generation of AI computing across data centers globally. In addition, expansion in new geographies, including the Middle East and India, is helping offset some lost Chinese demand. Furthermore, congressional efforts to enhance domestic semiconductor manufacturing through the CHIPS Act may ultimately favor Nvidia, though the company’s access to subsidies remains under discussion. Global AI infrastructure spending continues to rise, creating a tailwind for Nvidia’s GPU and systems segments.
Upside bias with caution around $153 resistance
In terms of price outlook, the base case for Nvidia over the next four to six weeks is continued consolidation with an upward bias. If export-related concerns do not intensify and broader tech sentiment remains favorable, the stock is likely to test the $153–$155 resistance zone. A breakout from this level could propel shares to the $165–$170 range. On the downside, strong support lies at $140, followed by $135 at the 50-day moving average. In a risk-off scenario or further deterioration in U.S.-China tech relations, Nvidia could revisit the $120–$130 region. Overall, while macro and regulatory risks persist, Nvidia’s technical strength and leading market position in AI suggest a bullish medium-term trajectory.
Wall Street remains highly bullish on Nvidia, with Barclays, Melius Research, and Oppenheimer raising their 12-month price targets to $200, $205, and $175, respectively, driven by strong AI chip demand and the success of the Blackwell GPU launch. These optimistic outlooks have kept investor confidence intact despite the stock’s modest underperformance versus the S&P 500 last week.
