Silver price risks third straight daily loss amid weak rebound on double bottom
Fed dot plot shift boosts dollar and pressures silver outlook
Silver's rally earlier in the week to a 13-year high at $37.3 has given way to a sharp pullback, turning the weekly trajectory from bullish to bearish.
This reversal began mid-week and has extended into Friday’s European session, culminating in a 4.8% drop from the high. The sharpest leg of the decline occurred today, when silver shed another 2.3% during the Asian and European sessions, reaching a low at $35.5.
- Silver trims sharp losses to hold above $35.5 key support
- Recovery fades below 1-hour EMA as volume weakens
- Fed dot plot shift boosts dollar and pressures silver outlook
This $35.5 level has proven to be significant. Not only did it act as support during the prior week’s retracement, but it was also reinforced today by the 20-day EMA. The confluence of technical support triggered a rebound, and silver printed a double bottom pattern around this zone. As of the early North American session, the rebound lifted prices to around $36.15, trimming intraday losses.
Silver price dynamics (June 2025). Source: TradingView
However, the recovery is already showing signs of exhaustion. On the hourly chart, the rebound struggled to break above the 20 EMA, which is now acting as short-term resistance. Volume has thinned as price moved higher, suggesting a lack of conviction behind the bounce. This fading strength casts doubt on the sustainability of the rebound.
Silver volume shrinks during intraday bounce casting doubt on recovery
The broader market context also weighs on silver’s outlook. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve reduced its projection for interest rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. The revised dot plot has strengthened the US dollar by tempering long-term dovish expectations. A stronger dollar typically pressures silver by increasing its cost to foreign buyers and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Technically, the 4-hour RSI is still positioned in bearish territory, reinforcing the broader downward bias. Although the double bottom at $35.5 provides a temporary floor, the lack of follow-through and declining volume may soon invite renewed selling.
At current levels near $36.15, silver is still down 0.7% on the day and for the week. If prices continue to stall below the 1-hour EMA and fail to hold above $36, silver could be headed for a third consecutive bearish daily close. The interplay between macro pressure from the Federal Reserve and technical weakness leaves the metal vulnerable to further downside unless a supply or Middle East tension catalyst shifts sentiment.
Silver sank after the Fed’s hawkish pause boosted the dollar and killed upside momentum. A death cross and falling RSI turned the technical outlook bearish below $36.30.
