Nikkei 225 index price stalls below 38,800 as bulls face resistance near Fibonacci top
Nikkei 225 consolidates below resistance as bulls seek breakout from Fibonacci ceiling
The Nikkei 225 index ended Thursday’s session around 38,403, down marginally as buyers failed to maintain traction above the key resistance near 38,800. Despite holding above the broader uptrend line from May, price action is turning indecisive near the Fibonacci 0.786 extension, which has capped recent bullish attempts.
Key highlights
- Nikkei 225 closed near 38,403 on June 20 after intraday weakness below the 38,800 resistance
- Daily and 4-hour indicators suggest short-term consolidation or pullback amid broader uptrend
- Support at 38,000 remains crucial as bulls seek a breakout above 39,300 for further upside
Intraday structure reflects growing exhaustion. The 4-hour chart shows a tightening consolidation range just under the upper Bollinger Band, with price struggling to hold above the 20-EMA.
Nikkei 225 price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
Compression between the 20 and 50 EMA suggests a directional move is likely approaching. Short-term indicators, including a flattening MACD and an RSI slipping below 40 on the 30-minute chart, point to fading upside strength.
Support zones hold as bulls look to defend 38000
The index continues to hover above a key structural zone between 37,950 and 38,050. A breakdown here could open a move toward 37,800 and 37,400, areas aligned with previous Fibonacci retracement levels and daily EMA clusters. On the upside, bulls need a strong close above the 38,800–39,300 zone to challenge the psychological 40,000 mark.
Broader momentum remains supportive. The daily RSI holds above 50, and the super trend indicator on the 4-hour chart remains green, albeit just below current price. However, the ADX-DMI combination signals weak trend strength, with +DI and -DI lines converging and ADX readings remaining soft. This supports a sideways-to-down bias unless a catalyst sparks renewed breakout buying.
As discussed in our earlier Nikkei 225 forecasts, the index remains broadly bullish but is struggling to extend gains without fresh momentum. Until a breakout above 38,800 materializes, traders should be prepared for continued range-bound behavior.
