Nvidia stock edges lower to $143 amid China risk concerns
Nvidia has posted stellar revenue growth, with Q1 fiscal 2025 revenue reaching $26 billion
As of June 23, Nvidia stock is trading at $143.85, down approximately 1.1% over the past 24 hours.
The stock has been consolidating in a tight range, following a steep rally that pushed it near its all-time highs earlier in the year.
Highlights
- Nvidia is trading at $143.85, consolidating just below key resistance levels with mixed technical signals.
- Strong institutional support and dominant AI market share underpin long-term bullish sentiment, despite rising geopolitical and competitive risks.
- A breakout above $147 could trigger a rally toward $160, while a drop below $140 may target $130 support.
Nvidia’s technical structure remains cautiously bullish. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which are clustered in the $127–$144 range. This alignment of moving averages supports the notion of a continued uptrend, provided that support levels hold. Immediate resistance lies around $145.82, followed by $147.78 and the January high near $149.37. A clean break above this zone could signal a bullish continuation toward the psychological $150 mark and higher.
On the support side, the stock is underpinned by several short-term levels: $142.27, $140.68, and $138.72. A failure to hold above $142 would shift the technical tone to bearish in the short term, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward the 200-day moving average, which currently lies around $130. Momentum indicators are mixed—RSI is hovering in the neutral zone near 46–48, showing a lack of conviction. Meanwhile, the MACD has flattened, and the slow stochastic points to overbought conditions, suggesting limited upside unless fresh momentum is injected.
NVDA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView
A closer look at the chart reveals a potential Bollinger Band squeeze forming. This is typically a precursor to increased volatility and a breakout move. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that volatility has contracted, and a directional move is likely imminent. This pattern often resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend—in this case, upward—but confirmation is essential. Additionally, a bullish flag pattern appears to be forming, which, if validated by a break above $147 on volume, could project a measured move toward $160.
Market Context
The broader market has been relatively supportive of Nvidia’s valuation, with investor focus remaining heavily tilted toward AI and data center growth themes. Nvidia continues to dominate the high-performance computing and AI chip market, holding an estimated 80% market share in AI GPUs. Its position as a hardware enabler of AI applications keeps it in strong demand among institutional investors, contributing to its $3.5 trillion market capitalization. While overall tech sentiment remains favorable, macroeconomic headwinds and interest rate concerns still exert pressure on high-valuation stocks like Nvidia, which trades at over 40 times forward earnings.
In recent quarters, Nvidia has posted stellar revenue growth, with Q1 fiscal 2025 revenue reaching $26 billion—up 262% year-over-year—driven largely by data center demand. The data center segment alone grew 427% year-over-year, underlining Nvidia’s central role in powering generative AI workloads. However, some investors have raised concerns about the sustainability of this growth trajectory, particularly due to rising competition and exposure to geopolitical risks in China, which still accounts for a meaningful portion of revenue.
Nevertheless, the long-term fundamentals remain intact, with AI adoption accelerating across sectors. Institutional activity has been supportive, with major funds holding or increasing positions—BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street collectively control over 13% of outstanding shares—although some insider sales have raised short-term caution flags.
Price forecast and scenarios
In the short term, Nvidia’s price action is likely to remain range-bound between $140 and $147 until a breakout materializes. If the stock successfully breaches the $147–$149 resistance zone with strong volume, the next leg higher could target $160, representing a 12% upside from current levels. This scenario aligns with the technical flag breakout projection.
Conversely, a breakdown below $140 would shift momentum to the downside, potentially dragging the stock toward $130. This level coincides with the 200-day moving average and would serve as a major test of the bullish trend. A close below $130 would invalidate the bullish setup and trigger a reassessment of the medium-term outlook.
Nvidia’s fundamentals remain robust, supported by its Blackwell architecture and expanding footprint in regions like the Middle East and India. Rising global AI infrastructure spending and potential CHIPS Act benefits further bolster long-term growth despite near-term geopolitical challenges.
