Silver price holds above $36 despite geopolitical tensions and strong dollar
Momentum indicators still support recovery toward $37
Silver extended its recovery into Monday’s European session, gaining over 0.5% to reach $36.20 after bouncing from a session low of $35.81 in Asia.
The rebound marked a continuation of the recovery from last week’s double bottom formation around $35.50, which acted as a firm support zone following a three-day bearish slide.
- Silver holds firm above $36 despite Middle East conflict and dollar strength
- Momentum indicators still support recovery toward $37
- Flash PMI data today could shape short-term haven demand
Despite heightened geopolitical risk from Israel-Iran tensions and the United States' airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, silver has not responded with the typical surge expected from a safe-haven asset. Instead, the reaction has been modest, suggesting investor sentiment may be subdued or temporarily complacent. Silver’s current movement contrasts historical patterns, where such geopolitical escalations typically lift precious metals strongly due to safe-haven demand.
Silver price dynamics (June 2025). Source: TradingView
The situation is further complicated by the strength in the U.S. dollar, which has continued to rise as of Monday’s session. Ordinarily, a stronger dollar exerts downward pressure on commodities like silver, yet the metal is holding above the key $36 psychological level. This suggests a degree of fundamental support, possibly anchored in broader concerns about the U.S. dollar’s long-term credibility should Middle East tensions expand and challenge global reserve confidence.
Silver daily RSI holds bullish as price consolidates above critical $36 pivot
On the technical side, the short-term picture remains mixed. Silver faces immediate resistance at the 20 and 50 EMA on the 4-hour chart, both converging near $36.25. A sustained move above that zone would strengthen the case for renewed upside towards the $37 level, particularly if safe haven flows intensify.
Momentum indicators provide some support to the upside case. The daily RSI remains in bullish territory, hinting that silver has not exhausted its recent upward pressure. Monday’s upcoming flash PMI data could shift risk sentiment depending on how the figures reflect global economic activity. A weaker PMI print may spur fresh inflows into safe havens like silver, while strong data could bolster risk appetite and challenge silver’s stability above $36.
For now, $36 stands as a key pivot level. A break below could lead to another test of the $35.50 double bottom support. On the other hand, a strong close above $36.25 would open the door to retesting the $37 handle.
Silver dropped from its 13-year high as weak volume failed to hold price above short-term EMA. The Fed’s hawkish dot plot strengthened the dollar and worsened silver’s bearish reversal.
